Aug
12
A New 2010 Firestorm?
Filed Under American Politics | 5 Comments
I think that recent events at Town Hall’s across the country suggest that the 2010 Congressional and State elections could be very interesting. But there are other developments that suggest it might be even more so.
Pew have done some research into the popularity of the different governments at Federal, state and local levels. Unsurprisingly, they’re not popular. Actually, local government hasn’t fared too badly, but at the federal level, unpopularity outstrips popularity by an 8% margin, and that includes an Obama bounce. An unpopular government has rebounded dramatically on Republicans the last three years and Presidential incumbency is usually a guarantee that that party will fare badly in mid-terms. But that isn’t the impending firestorm, it just sets an already precarious scene.
State finances are a disaster. Two thirds of states will be running a deficit next year. but what makes it even worse, is that the stimulus has pushed back the impact of this financial black hole:
As states across the country grapple with the worst economy in decades, most have cut services, forced workers to take unpaid days off, shut offices several days a month and scrambled to find new sources of revenue.
The good news is that much of the pain this year has been cushioned by billions of dollars of federal stimulus money, which has allowed states and localities to avoid laying off teachers, prison guards, police officers and firefighters.
The bad news is that for the next fiscal year, beginning in July, the picture looks even bleaker. Revenue is expected to remain depressed, even if the national economy improves. There will be only half as much federal stimulus aid available, and many states have already used up their emergency reserves.
And this is a compounding problem unequalled in recent history:
In fact, predicted state shortfalls will go higher in 2010 than in 2009, and much higher in 2011 at current rates. This year, the cumulative state deficits were $111 billion with the Porkulus cushion. Next year, it will total $163 billion, and 2011 is projected to hit $180 billion. In contrast, the worst year of the previous recession had a cumulative state deficit of $80 billion, cut almost in half the following year.
Already unpopular government, Town Hall bust ups and a potentially explosive state fiscal solution do not bode well for incumbents of either party at Congressional or gubernatorial level. I’m starting to wonder whether the 2010 mid-terms will be a dramatic political event. I’m not making any partisan predictions hear, I don’t know which way the wind will blow, but whichever way it will be, I think it might be a gale.
Jun
25
Palin Again
Filed Under Uncategorized | 20 Comments
A new Pew Research Poll addresses the popularity of four GOP hopefuls across the nation. The four were, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and surprisingly Michael Steele instead of Mike Huckabee.
Here’s how they break down:
Sarah Palin’s favourability nationwide is at 45%, her unfavourability is at 44%. Whilst still obviously divisive, she has now moved into tentative positive territory after having a negative favourability rating at the time of the election.
Mitt Romney’s favourability is at 40%, his unfavourability is at 28% whilst Newt Gingrich is at 35% favourable, 38% unfavourable. I’m not going to include Michael Steele, I really don’t see him as a contender.
Sarah Palin is strongly supported by Republicans, 73% have a favourable view of her compared to only 57% for Romney and 55% for Gingrich. That’s a sizeable advantage for Palin in advance of a primary season and a surprisingly poor showing for Romney.
There is another surprise in this poll. Despite her strong support amongst Republicans, she actually fell by 7% since October 2008. However the good news for her, and a worry for her haters is that support for her amongst Democrats went up by 6% (admittedly only to 24%) and she went up amongst independents seven points to 46% favourability. Bear in mind that in a recent Gallup poll, Obama’s support was only at 53% and falling, a margin of only seven.
What I find interesting about this poll, is how the Obama boosters are trying to spin Palin’s numbers. Marc Ambinder has this to say about her:
If the 2012 GOP primary were today, Palin might just win it; if the general election were tomorrow, she’d probably lose.
And:
Palin’s public image has crystallized in a polarizing fashion, and the public has more or less made up their minds about her, one way or the other.
His analysis conveniently ignores the fact that Sarah Palin is the most popular Republican amongst the population as a whole, and far from the public making their mind up about her, Democrats and independents are favouring her more and more. Now that’s going to worry some commentators on this blog!
Update Just a further mention on her chances of winning the GOP primary. Yes it’s a long way off, but as of right now, her chances look rather good. As I mentioned above, she is about 20% more popular than Romney and Gingrich amongst Republicans*. But not only that, her support amongst conservatives (85%) and white evangelicals (also 85%) is stratospheric. If you are going to win a primary, those are two fundamental bases that you’ll want on side.
* Marc Ambinder also cites a recent CNN poll which has Mike Huckabees favourabilty amongst Republicans at 70%, a much closer deal for Palin. However, she even outpolls him amongst the electorate at large 45% to 43%.
So come on then. How about a (sensible) stab at who will be the Republican nominee come 2012.
May
26
The Party Identification Timeline
Filed Under American Politics, Polling | Leave a Comment
This is a fascinating graph showing the trends in party identification for both parties and independents since 1939.
There are a number of interesting things to take away from this graph.
1. Despite Republican identity being at it’s lowest point since the 1970’s, it’s deficit to the Democratic Party is tiny in comparison to the 20% plus deficits that it yielded in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s.
2. The growth of independents has been one of inexorable progress. From a low of 15% in Harry Trumans’ day, independents now make up 36% of the electorate.
3. Reagan’s Presidency was the only real period of growth for the GOP. Reagan transformed American politics from one of Democratic dominance to the 50/50 electorate that marked the last twenty years. Will the Bush/Obama years be just as transformational as the Democrats restore their dominance?
4. How reliable are party identification numbers as an indicator of electoral success? In the thirty years between 1950 and 1980, the Democrats had a 10-25% advantage and yet that same period saw two Republican two term Presidents in Eisenhower and Nixon.
May
19
Are You Feeling Happy?
Filed Under Polling | 14 Comments
If so then you must be either a Republican or religious. If both then you’re probably ecstatic.
Yup it’s Pew time again although this time from 2006.
Some 45% of all Republicans report being very happy, compared with just 30% of Democrats and 29% of independents. This finding has also been around a long time; Republicans have been happier than Democrats every year since the General Social Survey began taking its measurements in 1972.
Of course, there’s a more obvious explanation for the Republicans’ happiness edge. Republicans tend to have more money than Democrats, and — as we’ve already discovered — people who have more money tend to be happier.
Well no actually.
poor Republicans are happier than poor Democrats; middle-income Republicans are happier than middle-income Democrats, and rich Republicans are happier than rich Democrats.
People who attend religious services weekly or more are happier (43% very happy) than those who attend monthly or less (31%); or seldom or never (26%).
Now if only John McCain’s campaign slogan had been “Be happy, vote McCain” or maybe “Obama makes you miserable”.
So THX, Israel and Hayward. How you feeling?
May
18
The GOP and Minorities – A More Prosaic Reason For Falling Support Perhaps.
Filed Under American Politics, Identity | 11 Comments
Interesting survey from one of my favourite research sites, Pew Research about minority groups and home ownership.
But since the start of the housing bust in 2005, rates have fallen more steeply for two of the nation’s largest minority groups — blacks and native-born Latinos — than for the rest of the population.
blacks and Latinos remain far more likely than whites to borrow in the subprime market where loans are usually higher-priced. In 2007, 27.6% of home-purchase loans to Hispanics and 33.5% to blacks were higher-priced loans, compared with just 10.5% of home-purchase loans to whites that year.
The analysis finds that counties with higher shares of immigrant residents had elevated rates of foreclosure.
Loan applications for home purchases by Hispanics fell 38.2% from 2006 to 2007. Applications from blacks decreased 34.4% during the same period, and the number of white applicants decreased 18.9%
It is a much quoted axiom that voters vote with their wallets. It might just be the case that latino voters adversely affected by the housing crash did the same. If themselves, their families or their communities suffer from plummeting house prices or even foreclosures, that is a pretty strong incentive to vote out the party that you perceive to have got you into that mess in the first place.
One last interesting note from this survey. Of the 33 American counties with a foreclosure rate of 5% or higher, more than half were in Florida, Virginia and Nevada; all swing states.
May
15
Nate Silver Spins on Abortion
Filed Under American Politics, Polling | 19 Comments
Nate Silver at 538.com has a piece up about abortion and asks whether the American public, as evidenced in a recent Pew Research poll is becoming more pro-life.
In the poll, Pew Research finds that 46% of Americans agree that abortion should be legal whilst 44% take the opposite view. What is really interesting about the poll though is that 18-29 year olds now favour abortion being illegal, albeit by a small margin (48%-47%). This flies in the face of the generally held belief that the younger generation are socially liberal across the board.
Nate Silver, argues that this poll is an outlier and that there is no general shift towards anti-abortion sentiments. He uses a graph, taken from Pollster.com to try and support his argument.
What this graph shows is a slow but definite shift towards the anti-abortion position since the late nineties. This doesn’t support Nate Silver’s position and so he takes a different set of data (ie. whether people think of themselves as pro-life or pro-choice) and endeavours to extrapolate the trends from that.
Now the figures are more to his liking and he is able to support his conclusion. I’m unable to explain why less and less people are favouring abortion, whilst more and more people are declaring themselves to be pro-choice. Perhaps it is just statistical noise, perhaps it is something psychological but the divergence between the two positions is interesting.
The Pew Research poll is an endorsement of my belief that it is not the social conservative positioning that is damaging the GOP, it is a competence and messaging issue.
Nate Silver, although a self-declared liberal, is an interesting voice in the blogosphere. His blog is an excellent resource. But I do find it interesting to watch a statistician hunt around for the right data to support his political position. At least he was prepared to show us the process for his spin.
May
8
Impressions of Obama
Filed Under American Politics | Leave a Comment
Pew Research have conducted a survey of people’s one word impressions of President Obama. It makes for interesting reading with some notable plusses for the President.
The most used word to describe him is “intelligent”, up from Sep ‘08, whilst “good” ranks second, also up from Sep ‘08. Perhaps unsurprisingly, but also significantly, the biggest change is for the word “inexperienced”. In September 2008, a full 55 of the respondents listed Obama as inexperienced. Now, the number of people who see him in that light is down to just 13.
However, there are some negatives. He isn’t selling people on “hope” and “change”. Change is down significantly so people aren’t getting the campaign vibe that Barack Obama represented something new in American politics. Although having said that, as “socialist” is the third most used word to describe him, perhaps they do recognise something different, just not in the direction they were expecting.
People like and approve of Barack Obama, of that there can be no doubt, but he is a polarising figure for many. I suspect that the “socialist” tag will continue to rise, but it will be interesting to see whether other negatives start to appear on the list.