Oct
19
Giving Lie To The Theory That The Republicans Are Beholden To Wingnuts
Filed Under American Politics | 57 Comments
Here’s a question for you, particularly those that think Rush Limbaugh is the de facto head of the Republican Party. Which one of the below three would Rush Limbaugh be most likely to support in a 2012 primary and be most sympathetic towards:
A) Sarah Palin
B) Mike Huckabee
C) Mitt Romney
Go to the top of the class if you answered A.
A latest rasmussen poll gives lie to the idea that the Limbaugh way is also the GOP way. They polled Republican voters, asking them who they would support in a Huckabee/Palin match up and in a Romney/Palin match up. In both cases, Palin gets trounced.
Mike Huckabee – 55%
Sarah Palin – 35%
A twenty point losing margin
———————————–
Mitt Romney – 52%
Sarah Palin – 37%
A 15 point losing margin.
The only religious demographic that Palin wins is with evangelicals against Romney. She loses to him with all other faiths. Huckabee beats Palin with all faiths including evangelicals.
Facts are so bothersome. They certainly don’t bear out the fact that the Republican party are the party of Limbaugh and Palin (at least for now).
Sep
18
Carter And Reagan = Obama And ?????
Filed Under American Politics | 3 Comments
Jimmy Carter suddenly becoming newsworthy again has given conservative bloggers the opportunity to link him with Obama. And Obama’s surrendering of the missile shield only serves to support the premise that like Carter, Obama is not only a purveyor of big government, but is weak on foreign policy too. True, it’s a simplistic comparison, and perhaps a little disingenuous to both Presidents, but it is also a comparison that has the ability to resonate, particularly with seniors and older independents. Because the one thing Carter’s Presidency did, was to create the Reagan conservative coalition. Conservative Republicans, Rockefeller Republicans and conservative Democrats all found a home in Reagan’s coalition.
For those of us who lived through the Carter presidency, it looks depressingly familiar. High spending, government control of the economy (especially on energy), and clear signs of retreat abroad — it looks much more like Jimmy Carter won his second term of office 28 years after getting booted by the American electorate. The entire decade turned into a morass of malaise, a cesspool of economic stagnation, and with Carter’s election, a season of American humiliation abroad.
But Ed notes the problem of comparing then with now. A Reagan coalition needed a Reagan:
Reagan built himself into a formidable candidate by spending years on the speaking circuit discussing politics and philosophy, and then eight years as governor adhering to conservative values. Reagan was no unknown quantity when he led his coalition to power in 1980; people knew exactly what Reagan would do as President.
It is tough to see anyone on the Republican side that can turn worries over big government and, if it pans out, a globally weakened America into strong GOP support. But not only that, a prospective candidate will need to square the circle of exciting the base whilst appealing to independents and moderate Republicans. Because two things are absolutely certain: No Republican will become President in 2012 unless they can appeal to both the base conservatives and those outside of the base.
If Obama continues on his current path, with an ever diminishing support amongst independents and seniors, the GOP will have a chance, but finding a reliably conservative candidate who can retain a degree of independence from the base is going to be tough. For the moment, I can only see two potential candidates out there that fulfill the necessary criteria; Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty. The only other possibility at the moment would be Mitt Romney, but I’m not sure his appeal with the base is strong enough.
Jul
20
Fantasy 2012
Filed Under American Politics | 7 Comments
Rasmussen has polled some hypothetical match-ups for 2012. These are obviously of limited relevance three and a half years out but are fun all the same.
In an Obama/Romney contest, there is a 45-45% tie. More on this in a moment.
In an Obama/Palin match-up, Obama beats Palin 48% to 42%. Not too bad for Palin, 42% isn’t high, but she restricts Obama’s win to the same margin by which he beat McCain and only 3% more would vote for Obama if pitted against Palin than if he was facing Romney. All the rhetoric about how Palin would represent a GOP wipe-out doesn’t fit this outcome. Of course there is a very big difference between answering a phone call and pulling the lever to vote for President.
Rasmussen also ran a scenario in which Romney wins the GOP nomination and Palin then decides to run as a third party candidate. In this scenario, Obama wins 44% of the vote, Romney 33% and Palin 16% (similar to Ross Perot’s 19% in 1992). There’s no real surprise here. In any scenario that has Palin running as a third candidate, she’s going to split the Republican vote. A third party run for Palin would be about establishing a new non-mainstream conservative party rather than getting power for herself.
I actually think the 45%-45% tie between Obama and Romney is quite good news for both parties. It proves to Romney that he is in with a shout and is right to be considered the Republicans best chance for unseating Obama (Mitch Daniels just doesn’t have the recognition nationwide to be a player in a poll such as this). However I think this is almost better news for Obama. Right now, his administration is suffering some real problems with unemployment worse than expected, worries about the deficit and an unpopular Cap and Trade policy. But the economy will recover by 2012 which will lessen the need for the economic fix-it that Romney represents himself as and bolster Obama’s popularity as he spins the “it was the stimulus stupid” line that will dominate the message once the economy starts to recover.
Jul
20
How about:
- A Governor who inherited an $800 million deficit and turned it into a $1.3 billion surplus even in these difficult financial times
- A Governor who was able to win 20% of the African-American vote in the states largest city
- A Governor who saved $450 million in the state budget
- A Governor who reduced the states spending growth from 5.9% to 2.8%
And all that despite the state losing $1.2 billion in tax revenues
This governor can certainly call them-self a fiscal conservative and would be the antithesis of Obama. A very intriguing candidate come 2012.
Who is it? Answer after the break.
Jul
11
Open Post
Filed Under American Politics | 86 Comments
There are three stories overnight that caught my eye. Feel free to discuss these or anything else that takes your fancy.
1.Barack Obama’s new Science Czar co-authored a book in 1977 in which he described some radical solutions to societies woes
** Women could be forced to abort their pregnancies, whether they wanted to or not
** The population at large could be sterilized by infertility drugs intentionally put into the nation’s drinking water or in food
** Single mothers and teen mothers should have their babies seized from them against their will and given away to other couples to raise
** People who “contribute to social deterioration” (i.e. undesirables) “can be required by law to exercise reproductive responsibility
This follows on from some rather startling comments about Roe v Wade from Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg:
Yes, the ruling about that surprised me. [Harris v. McRae — in 1980 the court upheld the Hyde Amendment, which forbids the use of Medicaid for abortions.] Frankly I had thought that at the time Roe was decided, there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don’t want to have too many of.
I’m not sure that getting rid of undesirables is a view we want doing the rounds in the corridors of power.
2. Speaking of the Supreme Court, Sonia Sotomayor’s confirmation hearing starts next week. It starts under a bit of a cloud, namely her historically low support amongst the public. Of recent Supreme Court nominees, only Harriet Myers had lower support. Even the controversial, divisive and ultimately failed nominee, Robert Bork, had higher approval numbers than Sotomayor.
3. In a recent poll of voters in Texas, Mitt Romney does particularly badly against Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Mitt Romney only gets 34% support against Obama’s 36%. But this isn’t a sign of Obama’s strength, his approval rating with Texan voter is a low 43%. This might suggest a problem that Romney will have appealing to red evangelical states come Primary season.
4. “Palling around with terrorists”. This was the famous line from the election for which Palin was widely condemned in the MSM and liberal blogosphere. Except it wasn’t her line. McCain advisers told her to say it and she repeated their script almost verbatim as new leaked e-mails show. Another myth debunked.
Jul
7
From Rasmussen
Whilst it suggests mixed results for Sarah Palin, it is far from disastrous for her.
The poll is a survey of Republicans only, so more bad news may yet come, particularly from independents, but Palin’s chances for the GOP nomination in 2012 haven’t been particularly damaged as of yet.
In terms of who Republicans would support for the nomination, Palin comes in second place, only 1% behind Romney:
in the 2012 party primary in their state: 25% say Romney, while 24% say Palin and 22% opt for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.
After that, GOP primary voters list former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (14%), while Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty each received one percent (1%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate.
The news for her on favourable/unfavourable isn’t terrible for her either. Palin’s favourables/unfavourables are 76/21, Huckabee’s are 78/17 and Romney’s are 73/19. It is still very close between the top three candidates.
However, there is bad news for Palin in this poll. 40% of Republicans think that her chances of winning the nomination have been hurt by her resignation (although 52% think it has had no effect or boosted her chances). The really bad news though is that more Republicans don’t want her to win the nomination than any other potential nominee. 21% of Republicans would not like to see her win the primary compared to 10% for Huckabee and 9% for Romney.
The next few weeks are likely to represent the low point for Palin amongst Republicans, and if this is as bad as it gets for her, then the nomination is certainly not beyond her. Now that she is in a position to build a campaign and create a message of her own, her numbers within the party are most likely to improve. I suspect that there has been a big sigh of relief let out in Wasilla today.
I also saw an interesting nugget about Palin at Pollster.com by Mark Blumenthal that adds some perspective to her long term electoral chances. Blumenthal notes from a recent Pew survey that Ralin has very good “very favourable ratings from conservatives and evangelical Republicans (these may have changed since her resignation though it is more likely that these are the groups staying loyal). From this, Blumenthal draws a comparison with Barack Obama’s route to the Presidency:
Looking at those numbers, I would argue that — as of last week, at least — Sarah Palin was the Republican best positioned to emulate the tactical model employed by Barack Obama in seeking the Democratic nomination in 2008. Remember that Obama did not begin as the first choice of party insiders or as a “front runner” in horse-race polls. Our trend estimate of vote preference results showed him as the choice of less than 20% of Democrats in late 2006. But Obama started with a real base, a core of true believers that showed up in big numbers whenever Obama gave a speech.
During 2007, the nascent Obama campaign discovered a new model for fundraising and field organizing. They learned they could mine Obama’s big crowds for small donations (by selling tickets), In so doing, they obtained the email addresses of their most ardent supporters who they could re-solicit at low cost and channel into a grassroots organization. Thus, although Obama was never a “front runner” in national polls during 2007, his campaign was able to raise $129 million that year, remaining competitive with Clinton and building a small donor/grassroots army that ultimately overwhelmed Clinton in 2008 in dollars and (what turned out to be) all-important efforts to turn out supporters in caucus states.
So the point is this: The Pew numbers show that Palin’s base as of June 2009 was as strong as Obama’s on the eve of the 2008 campaign. Consider two numbers: Palin’s “very favorable” rating last month on the Pew Research survey among all adults was 15%. Obama’s very favorable score among all adults on a Pew Research survey in August 2007 was 14%.
But despite this favourable comparison, she still faces an uphill climb if she is to follow Obama’s route to the White House:
Also, while Obama made the most of his base, his campaign always focused on the much larger electorate they knew they needed to convert to win. Moreover, while “change” was clearly the central overarching theme, the Obama campaign worked at key moments to indirectly reassure voters about his readiness for presidency. These efforts included a constant drumbeat of testimonials at key inflection points in Obama’s standing during the campaign: Law professors and Illinois legislators in early Iowa ads, everyone from Carolyn Kennedy to Kent Conrad just before Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton in June 2008 and both Clintons at the August convention, Warren Buffett and Colin Powell in the fall.
In contrast, by resigning, Sarah Palin is likely digging herself into a much deeper hole. In late October 2008, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 55% of registered voters considered Palin “not qualified” to be president (only 40% considered her qualified). Now, Palin faces a new perceived negative. As George Will put it yesterday, “in her own words, she now is a quitter.”
UPDATE
Gallup too has a poll out on Palin. Whilst 41% say categorically that they won’t vote for her, 43% say that they are very likely or somewhat likely too. That leaves a 13% group who are saying that they are less likely to vote for that Palin would need to appeal too between now and 2012. 39% of independents say that they would absolutely not vote for her. More importantly, 70% say that Palin’s decision to resign early has no impact on how they view her.
Jul
4
Sarah Palin
Filed Under American Politics | 44 Comments
This is obviously the big story of the moment. My views on why she did what she did change from thought to thought, moment to moment. Just as my view on whether what she did was right or not. I’ll obviously write more about her in time, but without any real evidence in any direction, predicting her future is a fairly fruitless task so I’ll wait for more information before I formalise my thinking.
So this is the post for speculation. There are four reasonable motives being assigned to her for her actions:
- There’s a big scandal on the way. The sudden nature of her announcement and it’s timing (Independence Day eve) suggest that this may be the reason.
- She’s fed up with the vitriol and the ethics complaints.
- She’s starting her run now. Resigning allows her to set up a machine in the lower 48, allows her to fundraise and to develop a network of political allies that she will support in 2010.
- She just wants to make monThere are suggestions of a TV deal and there will be a book to promote early next year. And at $100k per speaking engagement, there are a lot of missed opportunities by staying on as Governor.
Whichever way this pans out, Mitt Romney is walking to the nomination right now.
So speculate away. Why did she do what she did, and what is her future?
Jun
25
Palin Again
Filed Under Uncategorized | 20 Comments
A new Pew Research Poll addresses the popularity of four GOP hopefuls across the nation. The four were, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and surprisingly Michael Steele instead of Mike Huckabee.
Here’s how they break down:
Sarah Palin’s favourability nationwide is at 45%, her unfavourability is at 44%. Whilst still obviously divisive, she has now moved into tentative positive territory after having a negative favourability rating at the time of the election.
Mitt Romney’s favourability is at 40%, his unfavourability is at 28% whilst Newt Gingrich is at 35% favourable, 38% unfavourable. I’m not going to include Michael Steele, I really don’t see him as a contender.
Sarah Palin is strongly supported by Republicans, 73% have a favourable view of her compared to only 57% for Romney and 55% for Gingrich. That’s a sizeable advantage for Palin in advance of a primary season and a surprisingly poor showing for Romney.
There is another surprise in this poll. Despite her strong support amongst Republicans, she actually fell by 7% since October 2008. However the good news for her, and a worry for her haters is that support for her amongst Democrats went up by 6% (admittedly only to 24%) and she went up amongst independents seven points to 46% favourability. Bear in mind that in a recent Gallup poll, Obama’s support was only at 53% and falling, a margin of only seven.
What I find interesting about this poll, is how the Obama boosters are trying to spin Palin’s numbers. Marc Ambinder has this to say about her:
If the 2012 GOP primary were today, Palin might just win it; if the general election were tomorrow, she’d probably lose.
And:
Palin’s public image has crystallized in a polarizing fashion, and the public has more or less made up their minds about her, one way or the other.
His analysis conveniently ignores the fact that Sarah Palin is the most popular Republican amongst the population as a whole, and far from the public making their mind up about her, Democrats and independents are favouring her more and more. Now that’s going to worry some commentators on this blog!
Update Just a further mention on her chances of winning the GOP primary. Yes it’s a long way off, but as of right now, her chances look rather good. As I mentioned above, she is about 20% more popular than Romney and Gingrich amongst Republicans*. But not only that, her support amongst conservatives (85%) and white evangelicals (also 85%) is stratospheric. If you are going to win a primary, those are two fundamental bases that you’ll want on side.
* Marc Ambinder also cites a recent CNN poll which has Mike Huckabees favourabilty amongst Republicans at 70%, a much closer deal for Palin. However, she even outpolls him amongst the electorate at large 45% to 43%.
So come on then. How about a (sensible) stab at who will be the Republican nominee come 2012.
Jun
1
My Man Mitt.
Filed Under American Politics, Foreign Policy | 45 Comments
I have professed to not being a big fan of Mitt Romney. I thought his new found conservatism during the election was pragmatic rather than ideological, his big business background was representative of an economically elite republicanism when everyman America needed representation and that he was far too manicured to be taken seriously. In fact, one of the reasons why I was so excited by McCains pick of Palin was that following the dramatic and perfectly stage managed Democratic conference, a Romney pick would have been bland, boring and disincentivising for GOP campaigners.
My views are changing somewhat. Romney, too a large extent, has stayed outside of the GOP circular firing squad, hasn’t been victim to the ad hominem leftist attacks like Palin and Jindal and has demonstrated a maturity of thought and genuine political seriousness that have eluded certain other GOP ‘leaders’ post November 4th.
Kathryn Jean Lopez at NRO has a summation of a Romney speech to the Heritage Foundation which has further boosted my appreciation for him. The excerpts I’m going to quote have particular relevance because of my debates with Ronnie et al about the validity of a robust foreign policy.
Arrogant, delusional tyrants can not be stopped by earnest words and furrowed brows. Action, strong bold action coming from a position of strength and determination, is the only effective deterrent.
most importantly, the President should immediately reverse his recent decisions and strongly support completing our ballistic missile defense system.
America sacrificed the blood of its sons and daughters and sent treasure abroad, helping nurture democracy and human rights all over the world. We sustained a network of alliances and built military prowess that at first contained and then defeated Soviet communism. Because of what America did in the 20th century, there are hundreds of millions of people around the world who now live in freedom – who, but for the price paid by the United States, would have lived in despair. I know of no other such example of national selflessness in the history of mankind.
That is also why, with all due respect, I take issue with President Obama’s recent tour of apology. It’s not because America hasn’t made mistakes—we have—but because America’s mistakes are overwhelmed by what America has meant to the hopes and aspirations of people throughout the world.
with all that is transpiring in the world, in Iran, North Korea, Georgia, Somalia, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, this is the time for strength and confidence, not for apologizing to America’s critics.
Ok, that’s a lot of quotes to take in, but what Romney articulates almost perfectly represents my view on America’s position in the world. Without America’s ability and will to project its power in the face of despotic aggression, great swathes of the world would be living under the jackboot and hammer of tyranny. The world should not be seeking or expecting apologies from America, the world should be on bended knee giving thanks.
I’m not quite ready to say it out loud, so I’ll whisper it instead.
“Mitt Romney For President. 2012.“
May
18
The Race For The GOP Nominee In 2012
Filed Under American Politics, Conservatism, Polling | 23 Comments
Fox has a new poll out and one of it’s questions was asking non-Democrats who their preference is for the GOP nominee in 2012.
Republicans
- Mike Huckabee – 20%
- Mitt Romney – 18%
- Newt Gingrich – 14%
- Sarah Palin – 13%
- Rudy Giuliani – 12%
- Mark Sanford – 4%
- Bobby Jindal – 3%
- Jeb Bush – 3%
Independents
- Rudy Giuliani – 19%
- Mike Huckabee – 16%
- Mitt Romney – 12%
- Sarah Palin – 10%
- Newt Gingrich – 5%
- Bobby Jindal – 3%
- Jeb Bush – 3%
- Mark Sanford – 3%
Obviously this is not good for Sarah Palin, fourth amongst both independents and Republicans. Probably more alarming for her is that she trails Mike Huckabee amongst Republicans. Either he’s snaring more of the social conservative vote than she is, or he is appealing to both social conservatives and more moderate Republicans.
It’s not good news for Mark Sanford and Bobby Jindal, both are way down the list.
Now if only Rudy Giuliani can work out how to run a decent primary campaign.