Nov
30
And Then There Were Three
Filed Under American Politics | 4 Comments
The potential 2012 GOP candidates have been falling by the wayside a little this past few months. Firstly, Mark Sandford went ‘hiking on the Appalachian Trail’ and killed any chance of running in the Presidential primary. then Newt Gingrich went with the wrong side in NY-23 and set himself against most of his own party and now Mike Huckabee may be seeing his chances of the nomination disappearing.
The Seattle Times reports that the man suspected of shooting four police officers in Washington State was granted clemency in Arkansas nine years ago by then-Governor Mike Huckabee.
Huckabee had reportedly pardoned the suspected shooter, Maurice Clemmons, because he was just 17 when his original crimes were committed. (Clemmons was still on parole, and should apparently have been sent back to jail in Arkansas more recently.) But it’s a tragic, and politically damaging story of the kind that, with the name Willie Horton attached, helped derail Mike Dukakis’s bid for the White House.
It will be interesting to see how damaging this is for him, but it’s perfect ad fodder for opposing candidates. He can hardly lay claim to the tough on crime plank during a campaign.
Though it might not be so damaging; from the same article:
And the story also recalls another act of clemency gone awry: Huckabee advocated for parole for a convicted rapist who — his allies said — had been railroaded by Huckabee predecessor Bill Clinton. The rapist, Wayne DuMond, was released; he raped and murdered another woman.
Mitt Romney made the DuMond story a centerpiece of his campaign against Huckabee in Iowa in 2007.
Mike Huckabee of course won the primary in Iowa. Still, four police officers will not sit well with the Republican base.
And this of course is a terribly sad story. four officers gunned down in cold-blood in an assassination style killing. Awful.
Oct
19
Giving Lie To The Theory That The Republicans Are Beholden To Wingnuts
Filed Under American Politics | 57 Comments
Here’s a question for you, particularly those that think Rush Limbaugh is the de facto head of the Republican Party. Which one of the below three would Rush Limbaugh be most likely to support in a 2012 primary and be most sympathetic towards:
A) Sarah Palin
B) Mike Huckabee
C) Mitt Romney
Go to the top of the class if you answered A.
A latest rasmussen poll gives lie to the idea that the Limbaugh way is also the GOP way. They polled Republican voters, asking them who they would support in a Huckabee/Palin match up and in a Romney/Palin match up. In both cases, Palin gets trounced.
Mike Huckabee – 55%
Sarah Palin – 35%
A twenty point losing margin
———————————–
Mitt Romney – 52%
Sarah Palin – 37%
A 15 point losing margin.
The only religious demographic that Palin wins is with evangelicals against Romney. She loses to him with all other faiths. Huckabee beats Palin with all faiths including evangelicals.
Facts are so bothersome. They certainly don’t bear out the fact that the Republican party are the party of Limbaugh and Palin (at least for now).
Jul
20
How about:
- A Governor who inherited an $800 million deficit and turned it into a $1.3 billion surplus even in these difficult financial times
- A Governor who was able to win 20% of the African-American vote in the states largest city
- A Governor who saved $450 million in the state budget
- A Governor who reduced the states spending growth from 5.9% to 2.8%
And all that despite the state losing $1.2 billion in tax revenues
This governor can certainly call them-self a fiscal conservative and would be the antithesis of Obama. A very intriguing candidate come 2012.
Who is it? Answer after the break.
Jul
7
From Rasmussen
Whilst it suggests mixed results for Sarah Palin, it is far from disastrous for her.
The poll is a survey of Republicans only, so more bad news may yet come, particularly from independents, but Palin’s chances for the GOP nomination in 2012 haven’t been particularly damaged as of yet.
In terms of who Republicans would support for the nomination, Palin comes in second place, only 1% behind Romney:
in the 2012 party primary in their state: 25% say Romney, while 24% say Palin and 22% opt for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.
After that, GOP primary voters list former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (14%), while Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty each received one percent (1%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate.
The news for her on favourable/unfavourable isn’t terrible for her either. Palin’s favourables/unfavourables are 76/21, Huckabee’s are 78/17 and Romney’s are 73/19. It is still very close between the top three candidates.
However, there is bad news for Palin in this poll. 40% of Republicans think that her chances of winning the nomination have been hurt by her resignation (although 52% think it has had no effect or boosted her chances). The really bad news though is that more Republicans don’t want her to win the nomination than any other potential nominee. 21% of Republicans would not like to see her win the primary compared to 10% for Huckabee and 9% for Romney.
The next few weeks are likely to represent the low point for Palin amongst Republicans, and if this is as bad as it gets for her, then the nomination is certainly not beyond her. Now that she is in a position to build a campaign and create a message of her own, her numbers within the party are most likely to improve. I suspect that there has been a big sigh of relief let out in Wasilla today.
I also saw an interesting nugget about Palin at Pollster.com by Mark Blumenthal that adds some perspective to her long term electoral chances. Blumenthal notes from a recent Pew survey that Ralin has very good “very favourable ratings from conservatives and evangelical Republicans (these may have changed since her resignation though it is more likely that these are the groups staying loyal). From this, Blumenthal draws a comparison with Barack Obama’s route to the Presidency:
Looking at those numbers, I would argue that — as of last week, at least — Sarah Palin was the Republican best positioned to emulate the tactical model employed by Barack Obama in seeking the Democratic nomination in 2008. Remember that Obama did not begin as the first choice of party insiders or as a “front runner” in horse-race polls. Our trend estimate of vote preference results showed him as the choice of less than 20% of Democrats in late 2006. But Obama started with a real base, a core of true believers that showed up in big numbers whenever Obama gave a speech.
During 2007, the nascent Obama campaign discovered a new model for fundraising and field organizing. They learned they could mine Obama’s big crowds for small donations (by selling tickets), In so doing, they obtained the email addresses of their most ardent supporters who they could re-solicit at low cost and channel into a grassroots organization. Thus, although Obama was never a “front runner” in national polls during 2007, his campaign was able to raise $129 million that year, remaining competitive with Clinton and building a small donor/grassroots army that ultimately overwhelmed Clinton in 2008 in dollars and (what turned out to be) all-important efforts to turn out supporters in caucus states.
So the point is this: The Pew numbers show that Palin’s base as of June 2009 was as strong as Obama’s on the eve of the 2008 campaign. Consider two numbers: Palin’s “very favorable” rating last month on the Pew Research survey among all adults was 15%. Obama’s very favorable score among all adults on a Pew Research survey in August 2007 was 14%.
But despite this favourable comparison, she still faces an uphill climb if she is to follow Obama’s route to the White House:
Also, while Obama made the most of his base, his campaign always focused on the much larger electorate they knew they needed to convert to win. Moreover, while “change” was clearly the central overarching theme, the Obama campaign worked at key moments to indirectly reassure voters about his readiness for presidency. These efforts included a constant drumbeat of testimonials at key inflection points in Obama’s standing during the campaign: Law professors and Illinois legislators in early Iowa ads, everyone from Carolyn Kennedy to Kent Conrad just before Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton in June 2008 and both Clintons at the August convention, Warren Buffett and Colin Powell in the fall.
In contrast, by resigning, Sarah Palin is likely digging herself into a much deeper hole. In late October 2008, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 55% of registered voters considered Palin “not qualified” to be president (only 40% considered her qualified). Now, Palin faces a new perceived negative. As George Will put it yesterday, “in her own words, she now is a quitter.”
UPDATE
Gallup too has a poll out on Palin. Whilst 41% say categorically that they won’t vote for her, 43% say that they are very likely or somewhat likely too. That leaves a 13% group who are saying that they are less likely to vote for that Palin would need to appeal too between now and 2012. 39% of independents say that they would absolutely not vote for her. More importantly, 70% say that Palin’s decision to resign early has no impact on how they view her.
Jun
25
Palin Again
Filed Under Uncategorized | 20 Comments
A new Pew Research Poll addresses the popularity of four GOP hopefuls across the nation. The four were, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and surprisingly Michael Steele instead of Mike Huckabee.
Here’s how they break down:
Sarah Palin’s favourability nationwide is at 45%, her unfavourability is at 44%. Whilst still obviously divisive, she has now moved into tentative positive territory after having a negative favourability rating at the time of the election.
Mitt Romney’s favourability is at 40%, his unfavourability is at 28% whilst Newt Gingrich is at 35% favourable, 38% unfavourable. I’m not going to include Michael Steele, I really don’t see him as a contender.
Sarah Palin is strongly supported by Republicans, 73% have a favourable view of her compared to only 57% for Romney and 55% for Gingrich. That’s a sizeable advantage for Palin in advance of a primary season and a surprisingly poor showing for Romney.
There is another surprise in this poll. Despite her strong support amongst Republicans, she actually fell by 7% since October 2008. However the good news for her, and a worry for her haters is that support for her amongst Democrats went up by 6% (admittedly only to 24%) and she went up amongst independents seven points to 46% favourability. Bear in mind that in a recent Gallup poll, Obama’s support was only at 53% and falling, a margin of only seven.
What I find interesting about this poll, is how the Obama boosters are trying to spin Palin’s numbers. Marc Ambinder has this to say about her:
If the 2012 GOP primary were today, Palin might just win it; if the general election were tomorrow, she’d probably lose.
And:
Palin’s public image has crystallized in a polarizing fashion, and the public has more or less made up their minds about her, one way or the other.
His analysis conveniently ignores the fact that Sarah Palin is the most popular Republican amongst the population as a whole, and far from the public making their mind up about her, Democrats and independents are favouring her more and more. Now that’s going to worry some commentators on this blog!
Update Just a further mention on her chances of winning the GOP primary. Yes it’s a long way off, but as of right now, her chances look rather good. As I mentioned above, she is about 20% more popular than Romney and Gingrich amongst Republicans*. But not only that, her support amongst conservatives (85%) and white evangelicals (also 85%) is stratospheric. If you are going to win a primary, those are two fundamental bases that you’ll want on side.
* Marc Ambinder also cites a recent CNN poll which has Mike Huckabees favourabilty amongst Republicans at 70%, a much closer deal for Palin. However, she even outpolls him amongst the electorate at large 45% to 43%.
So come on then. How about a (sensible) stab at who will be the Republican nominee come 2012.
May
18
The Race For The GOP Nominee In 2012
Filed Under American Politics, Conservatism, Polling | 23 Comments
Fox has a new poll out and one of it’s questions was asking non-Democrats who their preference is for the GOP nominee in 2012.
Republicans
- Mike Huckabee – 20%
- Mitt Romney – 18%
- Newt Gingrich – 14%
- Sarah Palin – 13%
- Rudy Giuliani – 12%
- Mark Sanford – 4%
- Bobby Jindal – 3%
- Jeb Bush – 3%
Independents
- Rudy Giuliani – 19%
- Mike Huckabee – 16%
- Mitt Romney – 12%
- Sarah Palin – 10%
- Newt Gingrich – 5%
- Bobby Jindal – 3%
- Jeb Bush – 3%
- Mark Sanford – 3%
Obviously this is not good for Sarah Palin, fourth amongst both independents and Republicans. Probably more alarming for her is that she trails Mike Huckabee amongst Republicans. Either he’s snaring more of the social conservative vote than she is, or he is appealing to both social conservatives and more moderate Republicans.
It’s not good news for Mark Sanford and Bobby Jindal, both are way down the list.
Now if only Rudy Giuliani can work out how to run a decent primary campaign.
May
9
Ranking The GOP 2012 Contenders
Filed Under American Politics, Conservatism | 1 Comment
I thought I’d have a go at ranking the potential Republican nominees for President in 2012. I intend to make this a fairly regular feature tracking he ups and downs not only in the political sphere but also in what I think of them. The rankings are purely subjective and will reflect both the potential nominee I support but also how I perceive their performances and positioning on the political stage.
1. Sarah Palin.
Out of favour with Democrats and independents alike, seemingly unpopular with Beltway Republicans and barely gets a mention among the more elite conservative media outlets. However, her popularity with the base is undeniable, and more than any other Republican candidate, she has the ability to excite. Yes those interviews were poor, yes I’m concerned that she doesn’t have the inquisitive mind required of a President but for the moment I’m prepared to give her the three to four years to develop her skills and knowledge.
My reasons for supporting her are simple. She is a citizen politician, not an Ivy league alumni, she is an advocate of a smaller smarter less wasteful government, her social conservatism is democratic rather than didactic and she has a compassion and ability to empathise with the concerns of ordinary Americans as I think this address to the 2009 Special Olympics in Boise Idaho demonstrates:
(I won’t dwell on the contrast to Barack Obama’s view on the the Special Olympics).
She isn’t perfect and there are many justifiable knocks against her, but I’m not ready to give up on her yet and still believe that she has the time to turn her reputation around.
Others contenders after the break