• Search for:

• Archives

  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • September 2009
  • August 2009
  • July 2009
  • June 2009
  • May 2009

• Tags

  2010 2012 Afghanistan AGW Andrew Sullivan Barack Obama California Cap & Trade Chris Matthews Climate Change Conservatism Daily Kos Democratic Party Fox News Gallup George W Bush Glenn Beck GOP Guantanamo Healthcare Health Insurance Hillary Clinton Iran Israel Joe Biden John McCain Liberalism liberals Massachusetts Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney Nancy Pelosi Nate Silver Obamacare Pew Research Progressivism racial Ronald Reagan Rush Limbaugh Sarah Palin SCOTUS Sonia Sotomayor stimulus Tea- Party Terrorism

The left and the Democratic Party are a little miffed that the filibuster exists in the Senate to stop their legislation. Some want to act to get rid of it, Obama and Democratic leadership are proposing using reconciliation to pass their healthcare bill, but there are times when words come back to haunt you:

This isn’t a partisan point, Republicans fare no better here. After all, for Democrats to be angry about the use of the filibuster now whilst being for it previously just means that Republicans provide the opposing dynamic. They were once against it but are now for it.

And for those on the left who want to scrap the filibuster. Imagine you succeed and that in 2013 Sarah Palin is the President, Michele Bachmann is Speaker of the House, Jim DeMint is Senate Majority Leader and the Vice-President Dick Cheney represents the 51st vote in the Senate. Still want to sacrifice the filibuster?

Is one of the most respected political analysts in American politics and is regarded as non-partisan. His views are interesting to say the least:

I sort of reject the notion that there is a communications problem with President Obama. I think it’s just fundamental, total miscalculations from the very, very beginning. Of proportions comparable to President George W. Bush’s decision to go into Iraq.

I’ve spent the last couple of days talking to some of the brightest Democrats in the party that are not in the White House. And it’s very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House. It’s very hard. Are the seats there right this second? No. But we’re on a trajectory on the House turning over….

I suggest you read the whole thing.

Jonathan Martin has a great piece up about the lack of a civil war within the Republican party, something that doesn’t fit the narrative of circular firing-squads and tea-party takeovers.

And there enough examples now to understand that there is a pattern to GOP success, not just one-offs.

Example one:

GOP leaders easily swatted down a proposed “purity test” for candidates at last week’s Republican National Committee meeting — an indication that party officials are no more willing to turn over the keys to right-wing activists now than they were during the Bush years.

Example Two:

In Illinois, Rep. Mark Kirk is hardly a conservative heartthrob — and some activists are openly contemptuous of what they perceive as his moderation — but he easily won the Republican Senate primary there Tuesday night, against a more conservative, underfunded opponent, in part because he is seen as having the best chance to capture President Barack Obama’s old Senate seat.

Example Three:

Many activists may be unaware of what a mainstream political figure (Scott) Brown is. Even now, weeks after his election, conservatives are forwarding a 1½-minute video under the subject line “WOW! Powerful! Massachusetts Scott Brown Commercial.” It has gotten more than 1.4 million views.

It depicts Brown as a modern-day freedom fighter, comparing him to a revolutionary warrior and Democratic Washington to the British crown, with phrases such as “liberty” and “tyranny” sprinkled about and images of last fall’s tea party march in Washington in the finale.

But the ads that actually lifted Brown to victory were conventional, though smartly crafted, spots portraying him as a truck-driving Everyman — not a lamp-carrying colonist. In fact, it wasn’t Paul Revere but, rather, Democrat John F. Kennedy whom Brown was likened to in one of his commercials. In addition to the now-famous one of him driving his black GMC, another ad showed him working the triple deckers in gritty South Boston. The message was that he was safe for Democrats — or those who were raised as Democrats — to support, not that he wanted to start another revolution.

Example Four:

In Virginia, McDonnell also enjoyed great enthusiasm from conservative activists in his gubernatorial bid. And, unlike Brown, he was a genuine ideologue, having made his name in the state Legislature as a social conservative.

But McDonnell’s campaign was more Tom Davis than it was Pat Robertson, as the graduate of the latter’s law school ran straight toward the center with a campaign stressing jobs, education and transportation.

Example Five:

The one race where there is at least a perceived threat from the tea party crowd toward the establishment is the Florida GOP Senate primary.

But despite how the race has been framed, Marco Rubio, who is running against Gov. Charlie Crist, is hardly a wild-eyed activist.

And so on. Ace at Ace of Spades, a strong base conservative is selling his readers on Mark Kirk, the GOP nominee in Illinois for Obama’s old senate seat. He’s a moderate, he was one of the house Republicans to vote in favour of Cap and Trade. And yet because he has a strong chance of getting Republicans nearer to fifty senate seats, he’s now someone that can be accepted although not embraced by the base.

What a difference a year makes. Thanks to the Obama-Pelosi axis, the forthcoming battleground is a fiscal/size of government one rather than social. And that is a fight that conservatives and moderates can ally with each other on.

The Daily Kos has a poll up conducted by Research 2000 which shows the Republican Party to consist of conspiracist loons, possibly racist ones. The topline:

Polling self-identified Republicans:

Should Barack Obama be impeached, or not?

Yes 39
No 32
Not Sure 29

Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist?

Yes 63
No 21
Not Sure 16

Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?

Yes 42
No 36
Not Sure 22

Yadda, yadda, yadda. Typical left-wing propaganda stuff, but does portray Republicans as a bunch of “wingnuts”.

But is it a fair reflection of the Republican Party? I would argue not because one look at the demographic crosstabs for the poll shows that the Daily Kos have been leaning on the scales quite heavily to get the result they wanted.

If you wanted to portray a group of people as racist and prone to conspiracy theories, what would you do? It’s fair to say that those in the south, particularly the more elderly are going to be more prone to racist and anti-government sentiments than in other regions. I’m not saying that all elderly southerners are racist, God forbid, but the south does have a history of racism, and the elderly are likely to be more intolerant generally, that’s as true in the UK as in the US. So If I wanted to “influence” this poll to show Republicans as lunatic conspiracists, I’d poll a greater proportion of the elderly and a greater proportion of southerners. So onto Kos’ demographic crosstabs:

18-29 178 9%
30-44 418 21%
45-59 664 33%
60+ 743 37%

NE 217 11%
SOUTH 846 42%
MW 437 22%
WEST 503 25%

Note the figure for the North East (11%) and the south (42%). Hardly a fair sample. But there are more Republicans in the south I hear you cry? Maybe, but 11% in the North-East? Even in bluest of blue Vermont, 23% identified themselves as Republican at the last election.

This is a fundamentally dishonest poll which renders it’s conclusions completely invalid.

This will be my only post today. Yesterday Obama went to Baltimore to meet with House Republicans in a question and answer session filmed by C-Span. I’ve been watching it all morning.

What a pleasant change after the last year. Whilst I could disagree with Obama on much of what he says here, what a refreshing moment for politics this was. From both sides, I thought Republicans handled it very well too, particularly Paul Ryan who is a real high flyer within the party.

This is the Obama who could win easily in 2012, and the Obama who has been missing throughout 2009. Republicans need to learn how to deal with this Obama because we’ll see much more of him. Having said that, if this is the sign of the Republican party to come too, then they are already learning fast. This is what politics is all about. I can’t recommend it highly enough.

Think of it as a lengthy and polite PM’s Question Time.

The first video is of Obama’s introductory speech. (And BTW, how much more real is he reading from notes than from a teleprompter?)

that lasts half an hour. Next is the question and answer session which lasts an hour:

I found the whole thing utterly compelling. Polite without being fake, challenging without being antagonistic. This is politics at it’s best. Maybe I’m over-selling it, please find the time to watch it and make up your own mind.

Chris Cillizza identifies the winners and losers of the Massachusetts race. One stands out; the Republican ability to use online resources to fight the campaign:

Republican Netroots: If one of the stories of the last decade in politics was the rise of the liberal online community, the Brown election suggests that the story of this decade — or at least the first years of it — may be how Republicans found their mojo online. Not only did Brown use the web to fuel his massive fundraising in the final weeks of the campaign but in every measure of the social networking world he far outdistanced Coakley — nine times as many views of his You Tube videos, five times as many Facebook friend and three times as many followers on Twitter. Did his dominance in this arena win Brown the election? No. But, it gave his supporters productive vehicles in which to channel their energy and enthusiasm for the candidate. For Democrats who pooh-pooh Republicans’ efforts online, the Massachusetts race should serve as a major wake-up call.

This strategy helped Obama during his campaign. It’s good to see Republicans getting smart to the internet reality too.

Well it’s nearly 5am, so I’ll get some early thoughts in before heading to bed.

Firstly, my second shot at predicting and at least I’m getting warmer. At least I picked the right side this time but exaggerated the margin.

This will be a bit stream of consciousness, things will get more organised tomorrow after the pols and the pundits gather themselves and speak.

Republicans have hit upon a new way of campaigning. They now speak for the “independent voters of (insert state name here)”. It’s 3 for 3 in statewide elections in Obama won states in the space of a year. Not bad for what was supposed to be such a dysfunctional party.

“gas up the truck” – Funny chant and the whole truck thing worked well for Brown. But it’s time to drop it.

Who are the winners?- Apart from the obvious choice, Mitt Romney who lent a lot of support to the Brown team and Michael Steele who fed $500,000 to the campaign from the RNC without the press being aware. Publicly it would have tied Brown to the GOP too blatantly for Massachusetts voters.

Is any Democrat safe?- A poll in New York State had Republican George Pataki beating Kirsten Gillibrand comfortably in a hypothetical senate race. Very few Democrats can be comfortable today. That doesn’t mean I think that Republicans will sweep in November, just that Democrats are walking a high wire right now. A slip could bring things crashing down for them.

What might be that “slip”?- The Democrats have a decision now obviously. Do they rethink their strategy and move to the middle. Do they ditch healthcare, focus on bi-partisanship, ditch immigration reform and focus on jobs? That’s the safe bet. It might not excite the base but it’s not the base causing Democrats problems right now. Or do they go left. Force through healthcare, use legislative tricks like reconciliation and delaying the seating of Brown (not going to happen), fight the class war and push through immigration reform to shore up the hispanic vote. It’s a very high risk, high reward strategy. If he’s successful, I can see it bolstering Obama’s support. I can see a scenario that once the Democrats pass healthcare, moderates and enough independents to matter may just accept the fait accompli and move on. The Dems will probably be better protected in November and Obama probably wins in 2012. But if he takes this route and misjudges the strength of feeling, he’ll probably win Republicans the house, possibly the senate and even the White House. The Democrats have a significant blue wall of states that helps them in Presidential elections and gives them an advantage in the Senate. Tonight that wall was breached. Whether it is one that can be patched or becomes a breach that brings the edifice down will depend on how the Democrats react in the next few days and weeks.

Republicans should not get complacent. There was Obama-esque, Blair-esque (1997 version) excitement in this race. But many still were holding their nose as they pulled the lever for the Republican.

Rasmussen’s exit polls showed that 23% of Democrats voted for Brown as did 73% of independent voters (wow!) and Coakley only won union voters by 6%. Probably the most important number – 58% of voters said that health care was the most important issue in casting their vote. Of those, 41% strongly oppose the bill.

This may unite Democrats, but there will be too many looking at polls for this to happen. For the next few months it will be every vulnerable Democrat for him/herself.

This was not as much about Coakley’s bad candidacy as the Democratic spin machine will have us believe. It may have caused the final result, but it was the unpopularity of the Washington Democrats that put her in the position to lose. In late December she was still leading by upwards of twenty points. Since that moment, there has been the Ben Nelson Cornhusker kickback, the Christmas Eve Senate vote on Healthcare, the Christmas Day terrorist attack, the backroom dealings on reconciling the House and Senate bills and the Democrats hand out to the unions. Without these, even the disastrous campaign of Coakley would not have led to the result we’ve had.

This one’s important – If anything proves that the tea-party conservatives and the pragmatic east-coast conservatives need to work together, this result is it. What a potent force. The dynamism and energy of base conservatives and the independent and cross-party appeal of pragmatic conservatism. They’ve found a common cause in Scott Brown. Both sides need to remember this night.

Finally. Wow! what a transition in the space of a year. See; politics can be exciting. It may not be better than sex, but sport can’t hold a candle to it.

Massachusetts started one revolution. it might be hyperbole but perhaps the home of Lexington and Concord fired the first, thankfully metaphorical, shot that starts another one. The “people’s seat” may bring about a return to the people’s government.

Good night (5:33 ugh!), I’ll be online tomorrow afternoon. I think it’s going to be an interesting day.

By Israel

My heart sunk as I started reading this post at HotAir.com about a gay conservative organisation called GOPROUD seeking to participate at CPAC, the conference for conservative activists. It seems some conservatives aren’t all that keen on them taking part:

The Conservative Political Action Conference is the pinnacle of events for conservative activists. Held annually in Washington DC in the winter, it aggregates hundreds of conservative activist groups and thousands of attendees, and attracts high-profile figures on the Right, including national and regional politicians hoping to tap CPAC’s energy. Not all of these groups agree with each other on all issues, and sometimes the close quarters results in some entertaining debates (and sometimes just silly displays, such as the porpoise that followed Mitt Romney throughout the Omni in 2007). But the inclusion of a conservative coalition of gays, GOProud, has created calls for the ACU and CPAC to cut off GOProud’s sponsorship and attendance at CPAC as well as a few rumblings of a boycott among social conservatives.

Has it come to this? One can’t be welcomed under the conservative umbrella just because one is gay? If that were the case, the conservative movement would deserve all the criticism it gets. Just so we understand how GOPROUD define themselves, here are their ten principles reported at HotAir:

1 – TAX REFORM – Death tax repeal; domestic partner tax equity, and other changes to the tax code that will provide equity for gays and lesbians; cut in the capital gains and corporate tax rates to jump start our economy and create jobs; a fairer, flatter and substantially simpler tax code.

2 – HEALTHCARE REFORM – Free market healthcare reform. Legislation that will allow for the purchase of insurance across state lines – expanding access to domestic partner benefits; emphasizing individual ownership of healthcare insurance – such a shift would prevent discriminatory practices by an employer or the government.

3 – SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM – Bringing basic fairness to the Social Security system through the creation of inheritable personal savings accounts.

4 – DON’T ASK, DON’T TELL REPEAL – Repeal of the military’s Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy.

5 – HOLDING THE LINE ON SPENDING – Standing up for all tax payers against wasteful and unnecessary spending to protect future generations from the mounting federal debt.

6 – FIGHTING GLOBAL EXTREMISTS – Standing strong against radical regimes who seek to criminalize gays and lesbians.

7 – DEFENDING OUR CONSTITUTION – Opposing any anti-gay federal marriage amendment.

8 – ENCOURAGING COMMUNITY ENTREPRENEURSHIP – Package of free market reforms to encourage and support small businesses and entrepreneurship in the gay community.

9 – REVITALIZING OUR COMMUNITIES – A package of urban related reforms; expanding historic tax preservation credits; support for school choice.

10 – DEFENDING OUR COMMUNITY – Protecting 2nd amendment rights.

With the exception of the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, principles don’t really come more conservative than that. If they aren’t allowed into the big tent, who is?

So that was my despair (somewhat exacerbated by a Christian work colleague who declared today that “all gays should be wiped off the face of the earth”. Nice chap).

But then I read the comment thread for Ed Morrissey’s post supportive of GOPROUD and by a massive majority, the commentators are fully supportive of GOPROUD’s inclusion in the conservative movement.

For a while there I slipped into the liberal mindset that conservatives aren’t interested in welcoming all and sundry into their movement. It’s nice to be reminded just how wrong-headed that view is.

Last week a Rasmussen poll asked the hypothetical question about who people would vote for should a tea-party party exist. It outpolled Republicans:

Democratic Party 36%

Tea-Party Party – 23%

Republicans – 18%

They’ve now shot into the lead in the latest NBC/WSJ poll:

Tea-Party Party – 41%

Democratic Party – 35%

Republican Party – 28%

In truth, NBC are asking a different question to Rasmussen; not “who would you vote for”, but “do you have a favourable/unfavourable view of the respective parties?” But even so, that’s a remarkable ascendancy.

To be honest, I don’t see the Tea Party phenomena being maintained as thoughts are concentrated towards the 2010 election. Once the Democrats get the healthcare fiasco behind them (win or lose), they’ll put forward some sort of jobs bill* which should get them some of their mojo back and Republicans will focus on a unified electoral message that will encapsulate much of the Tea Party philosophy. The Tea Partiers will be pulled in both directions.

But it is yet more evidence of the potential dramas ahead for incumbents of both political parties. Very few Congressional seats will be seen as safe as we head into the electoral season.

* However, if they try an illegals amnesty bill, then that could boost the tea-partiers even more.

Next Page →

• Recent Comments

  • Conservative Cabbie: Israel Yet another republican, yet another scandal: Glass houses Israel: Rod Blagojevich Eric...
  • Conservative Cabbie: Israel Republican infighting: Does Markos Moulitsas saying he wants to primary Dennis Kucinich...
  • Conservative Cabbie: Israel If that isn’t one of the best reasons for reforming the US healthcare system to provide...
  • israel: A right wing spin on the Story of Harry Reid’s family that An Americn will love:...
  • israel: Insteresting story from Josh Marshall and his people at TPM on Republican infighting:...
  • israel: Yet another republican, yet another scandal: SALT LAKE CITY — Utah’s House majority leader resigned...
  • israel: Cabbie: An Amnerican means that l am posting too many links to sites she doesn’t approve of, and...
  • israel: Cabbie: The United States has a realtively large minority and economically poor populations – that is most...
  • Conservative Cabbie: An american It’s interesting what you are doing to your bloggers and blog What do you mean by...
  • Conservative Cabbie: Israel Infant mortality is more a social problem than a healthcare problem:...
  • israel: An American: It always bothers me when someone looks the other way when a wrong is being done…as long as it...
  • israel: Cabbie: I’m afraid you are wrong there. Have a look at survivability rates for things like cancer. You know,...
  • Verity: You write: “I’m a sceptic, but leaving that aside, don’t the advocates need to find a new way to make...
  • An American: C. Cabbie and Israel, I can only go by my own experience…In the last 6 months…testing has...
  • An American: C. Cabbie, It’s interesting what you are doing to your bloggers and blog…if I didn’t...

• Recent Posts

  • Open Post 12th March
  • Losing The Argument
  • If you Don’t Like A Rule….Break It
  • This Is Sad
  • Would Reagan Vote For Palin

• Blogroll

  • Ace Of Spades HQ
  • Alex Massie (The Spectator)
  • America In The World
  • American Thinker
  • Americano (The Spectator)
  • Centre Right
  • Clive Davis ConFab
  • Conservatives4Palin
  • Gateway Pundit
  • Hot Air
  • Iain Dale
  • Instapundit
  • Liberal Conspiracy
  • Little Green Footballs
  • Marc Ambinder
  • Martin Meenagh
  • Melanie Phillips (The Spectator)
  • Michelle Malkin
  • National Review Online
  • Political Punch
  • Red State
  • Secular Right
  • The Adam Smith Institute Blog
  • The Anonymous Liberal
  • The Coffee House (The Spectator)
  • The Corner @ National Review
  • The Daily Dish
  • The New Majority
  • The Next Right
  • The Weekly Standard’s Blog
  • Townhall.com’s Blog