Oct
26
Sorry to labour this point about independents, but I find them an interesting political force at them moment and have been waiting to find some polling on what they value. Thankfully, Gallup have obliged in one of their regular “Is America a Conservative nation” surveys.
Gallup tested republicans, democrats and independents on a number of issues:
- Is there too much government regulation?
- Should unions have less influence?
- Should regulation of firearms stay the same or be less strict?
- Should immigration be reduced?
- Should government take a role in promoting traditional values?
- Do you take the pro-life position on abortion?
- Is the threat of global warming being exaggerated?
These are a fairly good range of values that determine whether one’s position is a conservative or liberal one. On every single one of those positions, independents take a more conservative position now than they did in 2008 by double-figure (or very close too) margins. I won’t go through the numbers, follow the link if you are interested.
It is not a perceived conservatism that is the problem for the Republican party, there are other issues that have eroded support for the GOP, principle among them, a perceived lack of competence and a lack of trust.
Oct
1
Moral Values Back In Favour.
Filed Under General Politics | 9 Comments
Gallup has noticed an increase in the belief that government should do more to promote traditional moral values.
Unfortunately, they don’t define what is meant by traditional values, so people are reporting their own subjective view. But I would take it to mean marriage, family, sexual responsibility and possibly faith.
What is interesting, is that the move has happened because of independents and moderates, belief in governments role promoting values has stayed fairly static amongst Democrats and Republicans.
I can’t really put my finger on why this has happened now (the move has dramatically changed from last year, the lowest point for supporting traditional values). The obvious and partisan call to make is that it is somehow related to Obama and the Democrats but I don’t think this is right, mainly because of the dramatic change amongst independents (much more dramatic than any loss in support for Obama than that group). So I have a different theory, but would be interested to hear yours.
There has been a shift away from support for ‘left-wing’ political groups in the west of late. The centre-left party did poorly in the recent German elections, right-wing parties did well in the recent European elections, and despite Obama’s recent win in America, there has also been a consolidation of right wing support in America. As this Gallup poll demonstrates, there is now the smallest partisan gap in American politics since 2005 and we all know how the tea-party movement has grown. And a lot of this has happened post the financial crisis.
I think a lot of people have become fed up with the perceived failure of the elites (I know some of you don’t like that phrase and that it is generic and too broad, but nothing else really fits). We have put our faith in banks, governments and science and in return banks have lost us money, governments have shown themselves to be corrupt and science has tried to convince us of a climate change that our own lying eyes don’t see.
And as we perceive the failure of those we once considered our betters, perhaps we face the decision that we are now more personally responsible for our path through life. No longer can we feel secure abrogating our responsibilities and delegating them to others. But a greater sense of responsibility requires a greater sense of personal security; not financial, but emotional. And that can be found in rediscovering those things that are important to us alone; a sense of belonging and a sense of purpose. Hence a rediscovery of values. And I’m not just talking about religious values although for some it will manifest itself in that way.
The erosion of values culturally has been driven by a top-down dynamic, often unintended. Feminism, of itself a good thing, has weakened the family, social justice is well intentioned but has made us dependent, liberalised laws have freed us but have weakened our ability to self-sanction.
I do not think that this is a regression to a Pleasantville world, just a realisation that we need to mitigate our dependence on those who appoint themselves to tell us how to lead our lives for the better and that we need to start determining that for ourselves.
Or it could be just a statistical anomaly.
Aug
20
This Healthcare Stuff Is Confusing
Filed Under American Politics, Polling | 10 Comments
Gallup have polled people in all states to determine the levels of the uninsured on a state by state basis.
Here are the ten states with the most uninsured:
And the ten states with the lowest amount of uninsured:
Do you notice anything interesting about those two ‘graphs’? Aside from California and three swing states, those are red states in the top 10. And the bottom 10 are all blue states. The only explanation I can come up with is that there is more likely to be light touch regulation and government involvement in the red states and more government control of healthcare in the bluer ones, thus alleviating some levels of the uninsured.
I’m going to throw this one open to you clever bunch. Anyone like to try for an explanation for this?
Also, it should be noted that the state with the lowest levels of uninsured is Massachusetts, the state with the closest comparable version of healthcare to Obama’s own. If I was Obama, I’d be referencing these type of statistics constantly.
Jul
6
In this post, I commented on the fact that more Americans regard themselves as conservative than they do moderate or liberal. Well Gallup have a new survey out which goes further towards supporting this rightward drift.
Asking “Thinking about your views on political issues and how they have changed in recent years, would you say you are now more (conservative, unchanged or more liberal).”
Americans have become more conservative rather than liberal by a 2-1 margin (39% more conservative, 19% more liberal) although 42% remain unchanged.
And this move to conservative applies across the board. 47% of Republicans, 37% of independents and even 34% of Democrats see themselves as becoming more conservative.
However, when broken down to specific issues, the increasing conservative lean is slightly less noticeable.
On some issues, there is a definite rightward shift. On healthcare for example, whereas only34% in 2004 thought healthcare was not a government responsibility, that number has increased to 41%. Additionally, more people favour supporting the economy over environmental concerns and more favour the conservative attitude against gun control. One issue though has seen a considerable leftward shift of opinion since 2004, that of immigration. 49% of Americans wanted immigration to decrease in 2004, that has gone DOWN by 10% since then; a surprising result considering the recession (Republicans take note).
On social issues there is a slightly different story. Despite more Americans considering themselves to be pro-life (51% to 44% in 2004), there is a very slight liberal lean.
The one area that might be concerning to the Obama administration though is on the role of government. Whilst a smaller number of Americans think that taxes are too high, 10% more Americans think that government has too much power. Cap and Trade bills are hardly likely to improve that perception for Americans.
The problem for Obama is that this poll suggests that his Presidency has been awarded conditionally – that he doesn’t shift America to the left. The problem for the GOP however may be worse. Just as America moves to the right and should be embracing the Republicans, Republican leaders are falling over themselves to prove that they are incapable of providing the leadership that the American people want. Conservatism needs a leader, and it needs it fast, before this golden opportunity is wasted.
Jun
16
Gallup: “Americans More Conservative than Liberal”
Filed Under American Politics, Polling | 5 Comments
In a survey of aggregated 2009 polling data, Gallup have revealed that Americans identify themselves as significantly more conservative than liberal. In fact, there are more conservatives than self identified moderates. The data:
Conservatives – 40%
Moderates – 35%
Liberals – 21%
What is equally interesting, is the exposure that the two political parties have to their opposite side. Self identified Republicans have little exposure right now, only 3% of Republicans call themselves liberal whereas 22% of Democrats call themselves conservative. Of course, much of this discrepancy can be attributed to the relative fortunes of the two parties.
Polls are one thing, reality is a much more reliable indicator of political fortunes, and reality points to comfortable Democratic wins at the last two elections. So why the discrepancy?
Well the first reason is simple, the GOP are in a torrid state right now. Democrats have an 8% identification advantage and when independents are thrown into the mix, that advantage increases to 12%.
But I think there is a second reason too, and that is that Gallup give no indication of what people mean when they say they are conservative or liberal. Conservatism can be fiscal, social or traditional. It also carries less ideological certainty than liberalism, it may be possible to think of oneself as conservative whilst sharing many liberal views. Other polls do suggest this, why else would only a 21% liberal minority translate to a 50%+ support for the stimulus package for example.
But all that being said, this poll does represent an opportunity for the Republican Party. Not only do 40% of Americans identify themselves as conservative, conservatives also represent a 14% plurality over liberals amongst independents; 34% of independents call themselves conservative against 20% liberal. Equally important is the fact that 18-29 year olds are equally split on this self-identification (31%-30% liberal over conservative). But to turn these numbers into a political victory will require a leader who will transcend the disparate elements of conservatism rather than deny it and who can be judged as competent and trustworthy by the electorate.
May
22
Why Democrats Shouldn’t Be Too Excited By Party Identification Numbers
Filed Under Polling | 3 Comments
Post the November electoral victory for the Democrats, there have been a number of news stories and polls highlighting the paltry numbers for GOP party identification. Headline figures of 21% GOP identification or 17% leads for the Democrats tell a tale of woe for Republicans and gleeful celebration for Democrats.
But are these figures as bad as they first seem?
The first thing to acknowledge is that Republicanism is in a sorry state; the numbers are falling. However, a careful look at the numbers behind the headlines doesn’t necessarily reflect the political death of the GOP that is repeatedly reported by the media.
The key to a more positive outlook for the GOP lies in this Gallup survey of party identification on a state by state survey of tracking data throughout 2008. At first glance, the map offers even less hope for the GOP than the aforementioned surveys. Only four states (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Alaska) can be considered safe for Republicans whilst Nebraska leans in their favour. All the others are effectively tied up or are safely in the blue corner. But this leads to a disconnect between the survey data and the actual results from the November Presidential election.
There were 6 states that the survey said were Democratic by a magin of 5 or greater that went to John McCain. West Virginia had a Democratic advantage of 19, whilst Kentucky (13), Arkansas (12), Missouri (11), Louisiana (9) and Oklahoma (6) all went to John McCain despite party identification showing them to be firmly blue. In fact, Barack Obama won no state in which the Democrats had an advantage of eight or less.
The reason for this is that the Republican Party are much better at getting their proportion of the vote out than the Democrats are. Amongst those that identify themselves as Democrats, there are certain demographics (youth, African-Americans) who historically don’t vote in large numbers. In fact, it was probably Obama’s ability to get those demographics out that prevented more supposedly blue states going red. If against Obama, any state with a Democrat advantage of eight or less goes to the Republicans, what advantage would be needed by the Democrats if an electorate was less motivated than the last one?
If advantages of 17 are true, then the GOP has genuine reason to be concerned. If the GOP continues to lose support then that too should be cause for concern. However, if in the run-up to 2010 or even 2012, the GOP is within 8-10 points of the Democrats, then it should be the Democrats who need to be worried.
May
21
Do You Remember This Post?
Filed Under Polling | 5 Comments
The one where I found an exciting poll from a GOP perspective but on fact checking it realised it was a bit too exciting.
It’s a shame Fox didn’t do the same.
How about Jim Geraghty at the National Review:
Their most recent poll, conducted May 7–10, splits 32 percent for each party, with 34 percent for independents. When they press the independents for which party they lean towards, it comes out to another split, this time 45 percent for each.
In early April it had been 53 percent for Democrats, 34 percent for Republicans.
An outlier? Or was this spring the peak of a trend?
Or how about Ace Of Spades:
http://ace.new.mu.nu/gallup_party_identification_all_tied_up
I should point out that Bret Baier’s Special Report is a great show, Ace of Spades is probably my favourite blog whilst Jim Geraghty is an informative read on polling and electioneering in America. However that is a big collective woops from the right wing blogosphere and media.
Now I realise that I’m feeding the leftists here so by all means THX, Israel and Hayward, have some fun.
May
17
Oh Bugger!
Filed Under American Politics, Polling | 3 Comments
I’ve just had to rewrite a whole post. The Reason? I discovered a Gallup Party affiliation poll which flew in the face of recent polls on the subject. Not only did this poll (the most recent of them all) show that Republican affiliation was much higher than other polls which had GOP numbers in the low 20’s (Gallup had GOP support at 32%), it showed that GOP and Democratic affiliation was tied. Not only that, even including people who leaned one way or the other, affiliation for the two parties was still tied. I think I got a bit too excited but luckily I decided to do some checking.
Here is the pollster.com analysis of the poll. Pollster are identifying it as an outlier. As you can see from the graphs below, this result identified by the circled dot to the right of the graphs falls a significant distance from the average tracked by the red or blue line.
I suppose this is a good example of why I should be double-checking stories before I post. Could have been made to look damn silly on this one.
Interesting that Democratic support has stayed fairly constant over the last seven years and that the difference in affiliation between the two parties is a result of the Bush death spiral, a fact brought into stark reality by the GOP graph above. I suppose there is something positive out of all this. There’s hardly a clamouring in America for a liberal progressive revolution. I’m a glass is half-full person.
P.S. Message to Dick Cheney should he ever read this blog. First look at the Red graph above. Second, shut the **** up!!!!!