Feb
25
The left and the Democratic Party are a little miffed that the filibuster exists in the Senate to stop their legislation. Some want to act to get rid of it, Obama and Democratic leadership are proposing using reconciliation to pass their healthcare bill, but there are times when words come back to haunt you:
This isn’t a partisan point, Republicans fare no better here. After all, for Democrats to be angry about the use of the filibuster now whilst being for it previously just means that Republicans provide the opposing dynamic. They were once against it but are now for it.
And for those on the left who want to scrap the filibuster. Imagine you succeed and that in 2013 Sarah Palin is the President, Michele Bachmann is Speaker of the House, Jim DeMint is Senate Majority Leader and the Vice-President Dick Cheney represents the 51st vote in the Senate. Still want to sacrifice the filibuster?
Feb
25
Conflict Of Interest?
Filed Under American Politics | 1 Comment
The Democrats and the Toyota inquiry:
Two committees in the U.S. House of Representatives are holding hearings this week concerning allegations of sudden acceleration problems in Toyota cars and trucks sold in this country.
Among the witnesses appearing today at the hearing of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform was Toyota CEO Akido Toyoda, grandson of the company founder. On Tuesday, James E. Lentz, Toyota USA’s top sales executive, appeared before the Committee on Energy and Commerce.
There is a combined total of 59 Democrats serving on these two panels, which hold potentially life-and-death power over Toyota’s ability to continue offering its products to American consumers. So far this year, 31 of the 59 have received re-election campaign contributions ranging from as low as $500 to as high as $10,000 from the United Auto Workers union.
I wonder at what level a conflict of interest has to get for a politician to decide that such a conflict exists and that they should recuse themselves from a hearing. In most cases, the dollar amount isn’t that great (usually £2,000 to $2,500) but even so.
It’s ironic that even as this conflict arises, Democrats are trying to start legislation to restrict the role of financing in politics. What’s the bets that trade-union contributions won’t be covered?
Feb
22
Charlie Cook
Filed Under American Politics | Leave a Comment
Is one of the most respected political analysts in American politics and is regarded as non-partisan. His views are interesting to say the least:
I sort of reject the notion that there is a communications problem with President Obama. I think it’s just fundamental, total miscalculations from the very, very beginning. Of proportions comparable to President George W. Bush’s decision to go into Iraq.
I’ve spent the last couple of days talking to some of the brightest Democrats in the party that are not in the White House. And it’s very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House. It’s very hard. Are the seats there right this second? No. But we’re on a trajectory on the House turning over….
I suggest you read the whole thing.
Jan
26
Do You Know What Would Be Good?
Filed Under American Politics | 39 Comments
A serious debate on the issues. Unfortunately the Democrats don’t agree as a memo from the head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee demonstrates. It reads:
The memo urges Democratic candidates to force their opponents to answer a series of questions on health care, taxes and some of the favorite causes of the far right:
“Do you believe that Barack Obama is a U.S. citizen? Do you think the 10th Amendment bars Congress from issuing regulations like minimum health care coverage standards? Do you think programs like Social Security and Medicare represent socialism and should never have been created in the first place? Do you think President Obama is a socialist? Do you think America should return to a gold standard?”
If a Republican candidate says no to any of the questions, the memo says Democrats should “make their primary opponent or conservative activists know it. This will cause them to take heat from their primary opponents and could likely provoke a flip-flop
You know what, if I’m a Republican in a primary contest and a Democrat tries to get me to answer these questions I’m probably going to say “I don’t jump through your hoops sunshine. Come back at me when you’ve got some grown up questions for me to answer”. Or words to that effect.
There’s one obvious thing about American politics right now; the disillusionment of the public. They’re fed up with the name calling as Massachusetts demonstrated and Democrats can’t seem to transition away from this. I’d love to be a candidate right now just so that I could have that argument for real.
Jan
26
The Democratic Problem
Filed Under American Politics, Polling | 2 Comments
PPP have done some polling on the popularity of the respective parties. They find that Republicans now lead Democrats on the generic ballot by 45% to 42%. But it is their deeper numbers that are more instructive and help dispel some myths.
Firstly, whilst it is true that approval ratings are higher for Democrats than Republicans, this isn’t because moderates like Democrats more than the GOP. It’s because Republicans are unhappy with their own party, hence their acceptance of the tea-party phenomenon:
Congressional Democrats continue to have a higher approval rating at 32% than the 24% of their Republican colleagues, but that’s mostly because Democrats are more likely to rate their own party well than Republicans are. 66% of Democrats express support for their Congressional leadership while only 50% of GOP voters do for theirs. Continuing a long running trend voters who don’t like either party plan to vote Republican by a 59-20 margin, which is why the GOP can continue to be unpopular and still have successes at the polls.
Secondly, Democrats are becoming ever more reliant on the minority vote:
Turnout from racial minorities is going to be huge for Democrats this fall because they actually trail 53-31 among white voters
. The only thing keeping the generic ballot competitive is their 88-12 lead with African Americans and 67-27 one with Hispanics. Minority turnout is always important for Democrats but with their level of unpopularity among white voters right now at an extreme level it’s going to be even more important than usual.
To put that in perspective, Obama won 43% of the white vote in 2008. That means that everything else being equal and assuming that support for the Democratic Party and Obama means the same thing, Obama would lose 11,520,000 votes leaving him some ground to make up as his winning margin was only 9,500,000 approx.
The second myth that needs to be dispelled is that Obama’s wavering support is down to the dissatisfied left:
You wouldn’t know it from reading the blogosphere but liberal Democrats are actually pretty happy with the direction of their party right now. On our most recent national poll 76% expressed that sentiment.
The other wings of the party are not that content- 58% of moderates say they like where the party’s headed but only 39% of conservatives do.
Those conservative Democrats unhappy with their party aren’t complaining too loudly about it- they’re just going out and voting for Republicans, as many of them did on Tuesday in Massachusetts.
The liberal blogosphere needs to understand this dynamic quickly. To regain his popularity, Obama needs to transition to the middle. He misread his electoral mandate but is showing signs that he understands the difficulties this has caused him. The left are yet to understand this and the last thing the Democrats need as they try to regain their poor numbers is an internal fight instigated by the base.
Jan
23
A new USA Today/Gallup poll out today shows 55% of respondents want President Obama and Congressional Democrats to “suspend work on the current health care bill … and consider alternative bills that can receive Republican support.” And 39% want to see Democrats “continue to try” to pass health care.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows 61 percent of adults surveyed saying Congress should “drop health care reform and focus on more immediate ways to improve the economy and create jobs.”
As Obama fails to provide leadership to Congressional Democrats, perhaps the man with the tin ear is finally listening to the voice of the American people. Or perhaps he’s just indecisive.
Jan
20
Early Thoughts
Filed Under American Politics | 10 Comments
Well it’s nearly 5am, so I’ll get some early thoughts in before heading to bed.
Firstly, my second shot at predicting and at least I’m getting warmer. At least I picked the right side this time but exaggerated the margin.
This will be a bit stream of consciousness, things will get more organised tomorrow after the pols and the pundits gather themselves and speak.
Republicans have hit upon a new way of campaigning. They now speak for the “independent voters of (insert state name here)”. It’s 3 for 3 in statewide elections in Obama won states in the space of a year. Not bad for what was supposed to be such a dysfunctional party.
“gas up the truck” – Funny chant and the whole truck thing worked well for Brown. But it’s time to drop it.
Who are the winners?- Apart from the obvious choice, Mitt Romney who lent a lot of support to the Brown team and Michael Steele who fed $500,000 to the campaign from the RNC without the press being aware. Publicly it would have tied Brown to the GOP too blatantly for Massachusetts voters.
Is any Democrat safe?- A poll in New York State had Republican George Pataki beating Kirsten Gillibrand comfortably in a hypothetical senate race. Very few Democrats can be comfortable today. That doesn’t mean I think that Republicans will sweep in November, just that Democrats are walking a high wire right now. A slip could bring things crashing down for them.
What might be that “slip”?- The Democrats have a decision now obviously. Do they rethink their strategy and move to the middle. Do they ditch healthcare, focus on bi-partisanship, ditch immigration reform and focus on jobs? That’s the safe bet. It might not excite the base but it’s not the base causing Democrats problems right now. Or do they go left. Force through healthcare, use legislative tricks like reconciliation and delaying the seating of Brown (not going to happen), fight the class war and push through immigration reform to shore up the hispanic vote. It’s a very high risk, high reward strategy. If he’s successful, I can see it bolstering Obama’s support. I can see a scenario that once the Democrats pass healthcare, moderates and enough independents to matter may just accept the fait accompli and move on. The Dems will probably be better protected in November and Obama probably wins in 2012. But if he takes this route and misjudges the strength of feeling, he’ll probably win Republicans the house, possibly the senate and even the White House. The Democrats have a significant blue wall of states that helps them in Presidential elections and gives them an advantage in the Senate. Tonight that wall was breached. Whether it is one that can be patched or becomes a breach that brings the edifice down will depend on how the Democrats react in the next few days and weeks.
Republicans should not get complacent. There was Obama-esque, Blair-esque (1997 version) excitement in this race. But many still were holding their nose as they pulled the lever for the Republican.
Rasmussen’s exit polls showed that 23% of Democrats voted for Brown as did 73% of independent voters (wow!) and Coakley only won union voters by 6%. Probably the most important number – 58% of voters said that health care was the most important issue in casting their vote. Of those, 41% strongly oppose the bill.
This may unite Democrats, but there will be too many looking at polls for this to happen. For the next few months it will be every vulnerable Democrat for him/herself.
This was not as much about Coakley’s bad candidacy as the Democratic spin machine will have us believe. It may have caused the final result, but it was the unpopularity of the Washington Democrats that put her in the position to lose. In late December she was still leading by upwards of twenty points. Since that moment, there has been the Ben Nelson Cornhusker kickback, the Christmas Eve Senate vote on Healthcare, the Christmas Day terrorist attack, the backroom dealings on reconciling the House and Senate bills and the Democrats hand out to the unions. Without these, even the disastrous campaign of Coakley would not have led to the result we’ve had.
This one’s important – If anything proves that the tea-party conservatives and the pragmatic east-coast conservatives need to work together, this result is it. What a potent force. The dynamism and energy of base conservatives and the independent and cross-party appeal of pragmatic conservatism. They’ve found a common cause in Scott Brown. Both sides need to remember this night.
Finally. Wow! what a transition in the space of a year. See; politics can be exciting. It may not be better than sex, but sport can’t hold a candle to it.
Massachusetts started one revolution. it might be hyperbole but perhaps the home of Lexington and Concord fired the first, thankfully metaphorical, shot that starts another one. The “people’s seat” may bring about a return to the people’s government.
Good night (5:33 ugh!), I’ll be online tomorrow afternoon. I think it’s going to be an interesting day.
Jan
18
Chris Cilliza identifies why Democrats are fearful of a loss on tuesday:
It’s hard to overestimate the political impact of tomorrow’s race in Massachusetts on this November’s midterm election. Democratic strategists have already begun to fret privately that a loss by Coakley could set off a chain reaction that could significantly worsen the party’s outlook this fall. Democratic members of the House and, to a lesser extent, the Senate, who are already fretting about the possibility of losing their seats in 2010, would almost certainly take Coakley’s defeat as an indication of the toxicity of the national environment and head for the hills. Recruitment efforts would also grow far more complicated as convincing ambitious pols to take the risk of running in such an atmosphere would be tricky at best, impossible at worst. To date, Democrats have done an admirable job of keeping retirements in their ranks from spinning out of control. But a loss in a deep-blue state like Massachusetts — in a race for the late Ted Kennedy’s seat no less — would set off a panic the likes of which hasn’t been seen in Democratic electoral politics in a decade or more.
Jan
16
Rich Lowry at The Corner runs through the options:
They can try to pass health care before he can be seated. The problem is that it will strike people as unfair and undemocratic—brazen really. It will create a roiling populist revolt that will far outstrip anything we’ve seen so far. It also will be tough to pull off. There’s the issue of timing—could they cut a final deal and get an acceptable CBO score and all the rest of it before Brown arrived? Plus, there would be the heavier political headwinds created by Brown’s win and the above mentioned revulsion at the process. Would Blanche Lincoln be comfortable going along with this ploy? Would every Blue Dog who voted for the bill the first time around? Seems unlikely.
There are other routes: The Democrats could make another run at Olympia Snowe. This would be the easiest solution. But would they be able to address her concerns about affordability without another drawn-out negotiation (with time continuing to work against them) and without creating other problems in the bill? Also, if Brown won, it well might stiffen her resolve.
There’s always reconciliation. If they go that route, they no longer need 60 votes in the Senate. But my understanding is that they would have to send the bill back through committee. It would be a time-consuming process, making it impossible for Obama to do his “pivot” to jobs anytime soon. And a lot of the most popular features of the bill couldn’t be included, meaning Democrats would have to pass just the Medicare cuts and tax increases through the House and not lose any votes (again, in an environment where a Democrat lost in Massachusetts in an election defined by health care).
In theory, they could try to get the House to pass the Senate bill in its entirety. That means the unions give up the Cadillac loophole, the liberals eat every single one of their concerns, and they don’t fix their Stupak problem, which itself threatens to bring down the bill in House. A very heavy lift.
It wouldn’t be impossible for Democrats still to get it done if Brown won (and the leadership would be more desperate than ever to make it happen), but the odds would be against them. That’s why the stakes are so gigantic and Obama is going to Massachusetts. The fate of his signature piece of legislation—and perhaps his presidency—hangs in the balance.
The problem with all of these options is that it gives those waverers on the Democratic side (either from the right or the left) the chance to bolt, allowing them to blame it on the Massachusetts result. Personally, I think their only real option is to get the House to pass the Senate bill. In that instance, another Senate vote is not needed rendering Scott Brown’s 41st vote irrelevant. But that means passing a bill that doesn’t have a public option as the House bill does, passing a bill that doesn’t go as far as the Senate bill in who benefits from government subsidies and also passing a bill that doesn’t prevent government financing abortion. It will be a bill that the left and rigt of the Democratic house caucus will be unhappy with. However, Obama has reached the stage where has to get a bill passed soon as the longer this drags on, the less he can refocus on the economy. The other routes will either take too long (negotiating) or will be hugely unpopular (reconciliation and not seating Brown).
Jan
14
Massachusetts Shows Up Why Democrats Are Becoming Increasingly Unpopular
Filed Under American Politics | 21 Comments
They’re just too damn arrogant, and wouldn’t know an effective argument if it slapped them in the face. All they are interested in is partying with the lobbyists, ignoring the inconvenient public, identifying anyone who disagrees with them as extreme and obsessing about Bush/Cheney. Everything that was loathsome about the Democratic Party during the Town Hall days in August is coming to the fore again as both parties do battle in Mass., proving that the Democrats haven’t learned a thing.
There is one thing, the people of Massachusetts love, outside of the Kennedy’s, the Boston Red Sox who play at the famous Fenway Park. It is an obsession with little comparison, it cannot be overstated. So after Scott Brown went to a New England Patriots game to press flesh as part of his campaign, how did Martha Coakley react?
Coakley bristles at the suggestion that, with so little time left, in an election with such high stakes, she is being too passive.
“As opposed to standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?’’ she fires back, in an apparent reference to a Brown online video of him doing just that. “This is a special election. And I know that I have the support of Kim Driscoll. And I now know the members of the [Salem] School Committee, who know far more people than I could ever meet.”
What politician would want to stand in the cold talking to real people when they can go through the political establishment and avoid sullying themselves with ordinary people?
More evidence:
Outside the debate venue on Monday night, a truck pulls up, loaded with Coakley signs for a phalanx of Teamsters, who stand there holding them as the crowds arrive. Scott Brown shows up, sees the Coakley sign-holders, approaches and greets them and shakes their hands. Some tell him: I’m getting paid $50 to do this, but I’m voting for you. Coakley then arrives and . . . walks right past her sign-holders. No greetings, and certainly no hand shakes.
And as Scott Brown organises a grassroots fundraiser (targeting $500,000) that raises over $1 million at an average donation of $77, Coakley is in D.C. partying with healthcare lobbyists who are handing her $10,000 a time.
It may also be a good time to look at how establishment Democrats are looking to support Martha Coakley.
Here’s Obama’s favourite union, the SEIU:
“No wonder Brown’s campaign is being supported by the same extremist group that backs Sarah Palin,”
(note: Sarah Palin hasn’t got involved in the race in any public way to date)
Here’s a fund-raising e-mail from Senator Chuck Schumer:
Martha Coakley is running to fill the rest of Ted Kennedy’s term, and her opponent is a far-right tea-bagger Republican.
And how’s about this for a sense of entitlement from the same e-mail:
It would be bad enough to lose this seat — and Democrats’ sixtieth vote in the Senate — right before the final health care reform vote. But it would be even worse for the decisive “no” vote to come from Ted Kennedy’s old seat.
Obama’s Organising For America:
The polls are tightening as right-wing money floods the state, and one even shows the race to be a dead heat between progressive champion Martha Coakley and her extreme opponent.
An “extreme opponent”? Scott Brown supported Mitt Romney’s Romneycare in Massachusetts, he supports Roe v Wade and as Kathryn Jean Lopez notes:
A longtime friend of his even told the Boston Globe that “Scott would have made a great Democrat, but he comes from a Republican family.”
But before anyone starts screaming “RINO”, read the whole article. He’s hardly the tea-partying loon the left are trying to portray him as. He has even, God forfend, said he’d be supportive of the President on some national security measures.
The American left arrogantly believe that they don’t need to put their case to the people, and wouldn’t want to do so anyway (ordinary people are just too dumb and peasant-ish). They just want to be left alone to party on down in D.C., hang around with their friends in the political class and avoid as much contact with the prols as is possible. This is why their approvals are tumbling and why they will continue to suffer until they realise that government is not only “of the people”, but “for the people” and “by the people” too. Oh. And they might want to change the old Bush/Cheney mantra too. It’s getting very tired.