Nov
27
It’s Not Just The South
Filed Under American Politics, Polling
Sorry that this is another polling post, but there have been a number of polls out in the last week that I find, admittedly gleefully, interesting because they support the idea that Obama’s approval ratings are really suffering.
It is suggested on the left, that much of Obama’s falling approval has a southern factor attached, that the south have really turned against him, but that other regions of the country haven’t lost faith with Obama. Gallup finds that this isn’t the case, his fall in support is almost exactly uniform across the country:
Between Inauguration Day and today, Obama’s approval has fallen:
In the east by 19%
In the south by 18%
In the midwest by 17%
and in the west by 14%
And if you look at his current approvals on a by-state analysis, even in strong blue states, his support is edging towards, or at parity with disapproval. SurveyUSA via race42008:
Alabama 38/59
California 53/38
Kansas 38/58
Kentucky 38/58
Missouri 38/58
New York 53/39
Oregon 47/47
Virginia 37/60
Washington 48/48
He’s, to no surprise being killed in red states, but those purple states, like Virginia and Missouri in which Obama either won or nearly did, are giving him red state level approval ratings. And to be level in blue states like Oregon and Washington must be disappointing too.
Still, he can rely on the youth vote surely. Well he still has the majority there, 61%, but even then his approvals have dropped 13% amongst 18-29 year olds. And if the Wisconsin youth are a guide, then his troubles with that age group must be worrying for him:
Support for Bailouts:
* 18 to 29: 18% Support, 82% Opposition
* 30 to 45: 23% Support, 61% Opposition
* 46 to 65: 22% Support, 60% Opposition
* 65+: 13% Support, 69% OppositionSupport for Stimulus:
* 18 to 29: 14% Support, 50% Opposition
* 30 to 45: 35% Support, 49% Opposition
* 46 to 65: 31% Support, 58% Opposition
* 65+: 25% Support, 60% OppositionGeneric Congressional Ballot: among 18 to 29:
* 40% Republican
* 36% Democratic
Let’s remember, 2008 Presidential exit polls showed that 18-29 year old Wisconsin voters overwhelmingly supported Obama:* 64% Obama
* 35% McCain
I’m not prepared to put any money on a Republican win in 2012 yet, far too much can change, but I once believed that barring something very dramatic, Obama would almost certainly win in 2012. I no longer believe that. He is certainly vulnerable and if the economy doesn’t drastically turn around, or if Republicans can put up a quality candidate, then I think he is very beatable as all Democrats are when they can’t rely on their core voter groups to shore up their often depressed support amongst white and middle-class/middle-aged America.
Comments
14 Responses to “It’s Not Just The South”
Leave a Reply
Cabbie.
You could make yourself really ill with all this shit.
Ronnie
But I like it.
Quality Republican candidate?
What, someone who will follow the agenda of the extremes who are now attempting their porgroms and who got Hoffman elected?
Opps.
Oh yeah, THAT FAILED TO HAPPEN.
You are relying not only on the failure of the economy but the extremes of the right to ensure victory?
And theres confusion from the right as to an arguement about why people question their love of country!!
You will probably see some gains in 2010 for the right in my view because the Obama administration has been too slow and not forceful enough on DOMA, DADT and closing Guantanamo and that has been more of a factor in the eroding of support than any supposed gains by conservatives who have done nothing to help improve things for the country and only bring a tsunami of negativity to the process.
Israel
So we’ll just ignore the massive win for McDonnell in Virginia then shall we. Or the fact that the GOP won in a nice safe blue state like New Jersey? Talk about blinding yourself to the truth. If the GOP can find another Bob McDonnell (Mitch Daniels anyone), then Obama is in big trouble.
Well I never said anything about supposed gains by conservatives, I largely agree with you on that, but if you really believe that Obama is losing support because he hasn’t been liberal enough, you really are living in cloud cuckoo land. It is Obama’s statist liberalism that is hurting him. Americans thought he would govern from the middle, instead he tried for a massive government takeover of healthcare, he spent billions on a stimulus that didn’t work, and he carried on the bailouts (with a nice socialist twist) that has never been popular with the people. That is why his support is tanking.
I don’t see any good in the NY23 race pre-hoffman, where the two candidates dem and diablo had the same policy positions. This is not how democracy is supposed to work. And for the diablo to drop out and support the dem proves it. I’m glad Hoffman ran.
Funny, the dems here never want to talk about how well Obama is doing.
C. Cabbie,
With two grandsons in college, one a senior and one a junior…I think I can convey what they now think about Obama. The ‘naive’ grandson that voted for Obama is now quite disillusioned with the prospect of finding any kind of decent joy. The ’smarter’ grandson that didn’t vote for Obama…hunted all summer for a job, left over a hundred of his resumes and still was unable to get a low-level summer into fall job. He was told that people with master degrees with families needed the lower-level jobs and were thus given them.
The prospect for college graduates to get jobs…any kind of job that will support them… is GRIME. Just wait until some of the young air-heads that worshipped at the feet of their Messiah…can’t get jobs for years to come.
I predict his popularity with the younger set is about to take a gigantic never-ending plunge. And the arrogance and hubris of this ‘hasn’t got a clue loser’ is infuriating people.
Rhoda,
Yes…it is interesting that the liberals here never tout Obama’s wonderful record thus far.
If Obama’s healthcare bill is rammed down Americans throats by the Democratic Congress…the lease of their worries will surviving elections.
Obama is going to go to Copenhagen and promise…ie. lie…he’s good at it…about what he is capable of doing with the US environment. Of course, if he can get away with it…it too will cost the American taxpayers trillions of dollars of lost income, jobs and increased taxes. But, hey, do you really think this American hating Socialist really gives a hoot?
My wife met a guy from pensylvania (spelling?) on Wednesday. He is leaving the US because of what’s happening there. He was job hunting over here. He said America is dying.
O. Tony,
While shopping for our Thankgiving feast, we talked to an fellow originally from northern England who was our checkout clerk. He had applied for a job in Afghanistan…and was waiting to hear when he would be leaving. Ye gad!
I can’t tell you how discouraged people are with the direction this government is ‘forcing’ us. There is real trouble ahead!
AA I am so glad you had a lovely, homely thanksgiving. It is very dismaying what is happening to your fine land and all the while I can’t but help get the feeling it’s deliberate.
It would be so simple to drop taxes dramatically and drop spending to get things going again, but that commie god running the USA wont have anything to do with that.
Cabbie:
New Jersey and Virginia were not wins for the extremist wing of the party.
It’s interesting that this is virtually identical to the demographics in the USA:
“Support for Bailouts:
* 18 to 29: 18% Support, 82% Opposition
* 30 to 45: 23% Support, 61% Opposition
* 46 to 65: 22% Support, 60% Opposition
* 65+: 13% Support, 69% Opposition”
Minority groups make up 25% of the US population. Is it possible they are his only supporters now?
OT:
You are mistaking opposition for the bailout with opposition for President Obama.
It’s clearly stated above, so i’m not sure how you managed to miss it.
To be expected by someone from the right.
Israel,
Trust me when I say that most Americans are coming to detest this president.
When he got before the cameras to pardon the Thanksgiving turkey, he compared himself and his presidency to Lincoln! What an ego.
Next week he will spend tens of millions of taxpayer’s money to fly to West Point on the Potomac to announce to America about his much labored ‘decision’ on the Afghan war (what a burden for him)…We all know Obama wanted to wait for the purely political healthcare vote…but he just received too much criticism for daily unnecessary Afghan military deaths from America and abroad.
Obama will next have a Christmas Special with than non other than Oprah…that should bring his detractors around.
Everything…but everything, is a Photo Opt for this jerk…We Are So Sick and Tired or Seeing this Egotisical Loser on our TV screens!