Nov
9
Two Thoughts On Obamacare
Filed Under American Politics
Firstly, I just want to post this comment from Ed Morrissey at HotAir.com, I think it speaks to issues that still exist in getting healthcare reform passed:
Democrats have another problem, even in the House. The Senate is not considering the Pelosi plan, but one they wrote themselves. Unless Reid pulls his own bill out of consideration and substitutes Pelosi’s — which is a possibility — that sets up a conference committee and second vote in each chamber, assuming that the Senate passes anything at all. If that happens, a conference committee will have to meet to produce another bill that would then go for a full floor vote in each chamber. If abortion funding makes its way back into the bill, or if mandates or taxes increase, or if conscience protections get stripped, then all of the hurdles that Pelosi barely cleared the first time return, and without the ability to amend the bill (conference reports get straight up-or-down votes without amendments in order to have both chambers pass identical legislation for the President to sign.)
The Democrats have been able to move the ball, albeit laboriously, but the Senate is where the real action will be. Pelosi had a nice big majority to play with, Reid however has to navigate the 60 vote requirement to stop filibusters. That puts moderates like Blanche Lincoln, Mary Landrieu, Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad and of course Joe Lieberman in play. Interesting times.
Now I have two questions for you to hopefully engage with.
1. As you know, the reform proposals mandate that everyone, either personally or through their employer, has health insurance. Leaving aside whether or not this is a good thing, the question is: Is it constitutional? Do government have the right to force people to do something regardless of any actions they take themselves? Nancy Pelosi was very dismissive on this, but I think it’s a very appropriate and important qestion. Without a mandate, the whole basis for the Democratic plan of banning the disallowing of pre-existing conditions falls apart; it all becomes way to expensive for the health insurance customer.
2. Healthcare reform passed the house narrowly 220-215, despite a Democratic majority of 75. Also, bearing in mind that more Americans oppose this reform, and increasingly more so (see below), should the Democrats be taking on something which is both divisive and relatively unpopular? Their House majority is so large, that they could pass virtually anything, but to lose 70 votes from their own side is telling.
If 20% of Americans self-describe as Liberals and therefore ideologically supportive of healthcare reform and the uninsured account for 15% of the population and stand to directly benefit from the reform, that leaves less than 10% of Americans supporting it that don’t directly have a dog in the fight. Now I realise that that is a somewhat simplistic calculation, but it does suggest, along with the dissenting Democrats, that there isn’t, by a long way, any pragmatic, or even egalitarian, consensus on this reform amongst the population at large.
I’m biased on this and I admit that shapes my views. I can see an argument that says that we elect politicians precisely to make the beneficial but unpopular decisions for us. And I recognise that being a majority party allows you to set the legislative agenda., But the growing unpopularity of the reform, the debatable constitutionality of parts of it and the lack of even partisan political consensus tells me that even if one thinks that healthcare reform is a good thing, the Democrats are wrong to pursue the reforms that they have, in the way that they are. The opportunity to change the direction of reform has passed, but if they had spent less time trying to dismiss the great unwashed during the Townhalls in August and pandering to their base, and spent more time wondering why there was increasing antipathy towards the proposed bills, perhaps they could have crafted a better more consensual proposal.
Nancy Pelosi will get credit for passing the legislation, but in my view she should be criticised for being so stubborn.
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