Sep
28
The AGW Debate
Filed Under General Politics
Intersting debate on AGW in the comments, which I’d like to hijack and centralise here if you don’t mind. I do so, so that I can credit Martin Meenagh with another interesting post of which I thought his opening paragraph was particularly true:
The twenty years before 1999 brought forth many pathologies. One was a crazy worship of ideal market systems and their imposition on everyday life, regardless of people; others included neoconservatism, faith-based abusive atheism, uncontrolled tort and human rights law, the definition of men and women as sexual beings alone, and Pelagian approaches to criminals. Another was global warming.
I’m not totally comfortable with the science on this issue, but my scepticism needs AGW to be proven, and I think we’re a long way from that.
I’ll leave Martin with the final word:
Don’t stop thinking. Don’t turn off your critical rationality. Just don’t treat grant dependent scientists as priests, or let the media-political class think for you.
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46 Responses to “The AGW Debate”
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I’ve been looking at AGW for years. It’s a complicated subject, and we are not going to decide it here. Science has been turned on its head by what is a political, adversarial approach to what should be a scientific problem. The thing is, the AGW crowd ought to be able to either prove what they claim, or produce a falsifiability test. They are the ones with the theory. What they do in fact is to declare the debate over. This is a political stance, not a scientific one. Imn science the debate is never over, especially if new data emerges. There is no accepted scientific theory in existence where the debate is over, were new facts or better theories to emerge.
Another tactic used by the AGW people is to control the environment of debate. Posts to their main site get censored if they rock the boat. They control every GW entry in Wikipedia, for example. You can’t get a contrary opinion on there.
And they cheat. There’s no other word (well, I suppose there are lots). They publish papaers which are peer-reviewed by their mates. It’s a standard of publication that you provide enough information about data and methods that a reviewer could reproduce your results. Not in climate science. The historical data used by the climate research unit to reconstruct tempertaure histories since there has been worldwide temperature recording…gone. Lost, apparently. Oh, we have the processed records, corrected and changed by AGW supporters, but nobody can go back and do that again, it’s gone. And the methods used to massage the data? Never released. Attempts to get this data, and many other datasets, from the academics who are sitting on them, have failed, despite using freedom of information acts to see data obtained using public funds. Crookedness abounds. That is not a case for spending trillions of dollars to abate something which is not a problem.
Rhoda
The Question that you scientific conspiracy theorists have to answer is- Why would a whole bunch of climate scientists make all this stuff up?
Come to the Speccie debate and dinner is still on me
from last june.
http://www.conservativecabbie.com/2009/06/25/cap-the-demise-of-science-based-policy-development/
Rhoda
I advise you to check out shockwavers post that he links, he’s a smart sceptical guy.
Shockwaver
I’m glad you are checking in at least. It’s not been the same without you.
Shockwaver:
GOOD TO HAVE YOU BACK!!!!!!!!!
Hey Man welcome Back
Hi Shockwaver.
Hi CC
Many thanks for the link! I agree with Rhoda, I think, but I would suggest to people who are looking for serious, science based scepticism–and sceptical is exactly what scientists should be–to have a look at Anthony Watts’ site. He did a fantastic thing by just detailing where and how reliable each US weather-monitoring system was; I think he photographed thousands. The site itself is also choc-full of interesting people; http://www.wattsupwiththat.com
Anyway, I hope that you had a nice weekend. Shockwaver, I don’t know if it presumptuous of me to say it since I am a rarer visitor than the regulars, but, well, welcome back!
THX, jury still out on that debate, I’m not happy that my arguments will be properly represented or adjudicated.
Why would all those climate scientists say what they do? First, they believe it. Not saying they don’t. But there is such a thing as confirmation bias, and that leads to doing things which are not quite right, not deliberately, but because none of us, none, change our minds on the basis of all the evidence, just what we like. I don’t think they are a conspiracy. But they do act to shut down debate, they do use rhetorical tricks to try to win arguments, they do peer-review each other, and most of all, they get grants to do it all. Public money to support a position which is itself leading to tax increases which supplies more public money…..it seems the search for truth has got lost somewhere.
To sum up, they have to prove the theory, and they cheat, when their conduct as scientists ought to be above reproach. It’s not a matter of my opinion or slanted websites, they don’t publish data and methods. Cheats.
I’ll never forget the fellow at a Conference several years ago, that was screaming from the rooftops about man-made global warming…I wondered why he was so excited and taking over every discussion about it…then I found out he had requested Federal research money for a study for his students at Princeton…It was all about getting his hands on loads of money. Although he’d done no research thus far, he was sure there was man-made global warming going on…Yes, even some scientists lack scruples…when it comes to research money.
…and Oh Gosh, while we’re boo hooing over Michelle Bachmann being asked questions regarding her statements:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/28/obama-facebook-poll-asks_n_301860.html
Oh yes, nothing wrong with the far right…they’re just practising their freedom of speech. The nice thing is that others get to practice theirs by calling them out on their anti-American statements.
Shockwaver,
So happy to see you checking in…I reread your Cap and Trade article…brilliant! Thanks.
Guys Cabbie has just rung me to say that builders have dug through his phone line and he will be without the Internet for two days. Shame!
Can we please continue to argue amongst ourselves until he is back on line.
THX:
Oh dear..let’s hope its only for a few days.
Shockwaver…lovely to see your name again buddy
AGW is a load of crap, it’s to boost scientists profiles to keep the 4 billion in funding that they get every year. It’s a tax and money-making machine.It has been calculated that human atmospheric waste only contributes 6% of global warming gases. To my atonishment, even vegetation rotting in the forests produces more; volcanoes produce far far more than that.
People dont look at the sun as the cause of climatic fluctuations, nor its impact on water temperature. That is the main cause of climate change, dear old ’sol’
To irritate the lefties, a bit from Glenn Beck, my hero
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ft8LfE7AI2w
OT If a bucket is full and you add 6% more water it overflows.
Martin’s last statement in C. Cabbie’s posting says it all.
Most people believe what they want to believe, including many scientists who go along with government dogma if that scientist is supported by government’s grants.
But, there are still some scientists out there who have ethics that will continue to work to find the facts…but right now, many of these scientists are being threatened by job loss or are being financially squeezed by their own government if they don’t toe the political line on global warming.
We now know we can’t believe anything the mass media says or prints…and now we’re finding out we can’t believe much of the science…it’s very discouraging and frightening when political dogma takes over everything.
I believe the western world is in real trouble when it trys to shut down all opposition of ideas.
The British roadworkers strike again!!!!
These guys are worse than most natural disasters.
Rhoda and THX,
Being atheists…you might find this amusing.
Many years ago I was in London with my husband who was at a physics conference. Over drinks he introduced me to a scientist from Los Alamos that had just come from studying the Shroud of Turin in Italy…I said, how fascinating and asked him what his conclusions were so far. He said we still have to do the age study on the fabric…but, ‘I’m sure it’s the shroud of my saviour Jesus Christ”…Now I am a Christian and a believer…but frankly hearing a comment like that from what is suppose to be an impartial scientist…I almost choked on my glass of wine.
An American:
I’m not too surprised.
Newton, Gallileo and Darwin himself were all sons of the church (although Gallileo must have wondered why he bothered, the way they treated him!!
)
I have always argued that if you agree with the science that clarifies the age of the Turin Shroud, you have agree when the same science proves that fossils are millions of years old. You cannot have one without the other.
Israel,
I believe in evolution and in Christ…I find faith a consolation and comfort.
AA Yep that’s funny carbon dating did for him.
Israel and don’t forget that Stalin was a training for the priesthood before becoming a totalitarian mass murderer, probably where he got the idea from.
THX…yes add 6% and it overflows, blah blah blah. Ever figure the earth may adjust for that somehow? Or is the earth a pressure-cooker with no release valve?
OT
” Ever figure the earth may adjust for that somehow?”
Yes it gets warmer!
THX/Rhoda nog al you atheists. Here is a scripture for you: Romans 14:11
“For it is written, As I live, saith the Lord, every knee shall bow to me, and every tongue shall confess to God.”
While I do not rejoice in any person going to hell, you WILL bow your knee one day to God. It is not me saying this, but God Himself. So enjoy your life mocking Christians but I truly fear for your soul, I really do.
Alas though, all you guys see God as a God of hate but you have no idea what a God of love He is too.Pity you cant discover that for yourself.
THX…your argument is perfectly described by a pressure-coooker. Do you really believe things will go from bad to worse until something explodes, fails or is torn apart? I dont agree with you at all. There are survival mechanisms far too complicated in the earth for even scientists to understand.
I’d hope to get into a better circle than THX, ’cause I try not to mock Christians, or indeed other religionists. I do mock AGW believers, they have not even got the scriptures to justify themselves. I also make a distinction between believers and churches. There is a great deal that is unsatisfactory about organised religion. Where are the bishops and cathedrals in the gospel?
Rhoda:
“I also make a distinction between believers and churches. There is a great deal that is unsatisfactory about organised religion. Where are the bishops and cathedrals in the gospel?”
Spot on Rhoda!!
Unbelievers look at a failed humanist church and think that is what God is like. Far from it, He is the most wonderful being there is. Just imagine, getting to know someone who made that tree out the window, or the light the reflects off it or the gravity that holds your chair to the ground. And He is interested in YOU as an individual!!
OT
“There are survival mechanisms far too complicated in the earth for even scientists to understand.”
But not imaginary friend botherers it would seem.
THX…dont you mean ‘borrowers?’
OT
nope botherers
Rhoda,
Unlike O. Tony, I don’t think you mock religion and you do have a right to believe or not to believe.
We discussed this before you started commenting here…I too dislike what man has done to religion. That’s why I don’t go to church very often. I just want to go to worship God…not have some minister tell me how rotten I am for things I’ve never done or thought…the church is mostly about control not the worship of God.
But, I continue to believe because my eyes were opened when I was baptized…and God has answered so many of my prayers…he is a presence and a comfort to me.
OT
Maybe there is a god after all, just as I was arguing with you about AGW an e-mail from Al Gore dropped into my in-box
THX,
If you are comparing Gore to God…I would find a psycologist quickly!
AA
Maybe it was a sign from God that AGW is happening and I have to fight the good fight against you heretics, lets break out the thumb screws and light up the cleansing fires..
Isn’t that what religions do ?
THX…isnt that what religions do?
The answer is yes!
But Christ is not a religion, He is a person of total beauty and purity. It’s man that has ruined His message, not Him! Try and see the difference will you?
THX…why would Bore…sorry Gore…be e-mailing you?
OT
Point taken!
OT
THX…why would Bore…sorry Gore…be e-mailing you?
Dunno.. Didn’t read it!
Some say that Al is $100 million better off than when he had that stroke of luck in 2000.
He seems to be doing well by doing good. Hands up all those who remember Tom Lehrer.
“If a bucket is full and you add 6% more water it overflows.”
Not if the bucket’s full of sand.
Alf—brilliant reply buddy!
Rhoda,
Tom Lehrer?
I have so many favourites. This one seemed relevant. Seeing as I’m not given to bouts of religious fervour I don’t tend to ‘believe’ in AGW. However I do believe that “we” shouldn’t crap on our own doorstep.
======================================
Pollution. by Tom Lehrer:
Time was when an American about to go abroad would be warned by his friends or the guidebooks not to drink the water. But times have changed, and now a foreigner coming to this country might be offered the following advice:
If you visit American city,
You will find it very pretty.
Just two things of which you must beware:
Don’t drink the water and don’t breathe the air!
Pollution, pollution!
They got smog and sewage and mud.
Turn on your tap
And get hot and cold running crud!
See the halibuts and the sturgeons
Being wiped out by detergeons.
Fish gotta swim and birds gotta fly,
But they don’t last long if they try.
Pollution, pollution!
You can use the latest toothpaste,
And then rinse your mouth
With industrial waste.
Just go out for a breath of air
And you’ll be ready for Medicare.
The city streets are really quite a thrill —
If the hoods don’t get you, the monoxide will.
Pollution, pollution!
Wear a gas mask and a veil.
Then you can breathe,
Long as you don’t inhale!
Lots of things there that you can drink,
But stay away from the kitchen sink!
The breakfast garbage that you throw into the Bay
They drink at lunch in San Jose.
So go to the city,
See the crazy people there.
Like lambs to the slaughter,
They’re drinking the water
And breathing [cough] the air!
David M
That Reminds me of that Great Dr Seuss story The Lorax.
Folks…I know that the AGW debate is sliding into history on this blog but I just want to add one point from my crazy creationist viewpoint.
The Bible says that in the last days, which I believe we are in, the world will dry up and get pretty hot.
I do not subscribe to man causing this but the one book that is more up to date than tomorrows newspaper, says the world will get incredibly hot, but men will still shake their fists at God and curse Him.