Jul
3
Hillary Vs Barack Round Two
Filed Under American Politics
Ed Morrissey at HotAir.com has a piece up (citing Jim Geraghty at NRO’s Campaign Spot about the possibility of a falling out between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It all stems from a couple of unsubstantiated rumours.
Firstly, Hillary Clinton is not accompanying President Obama on his trip to Moscow. It’s perfectly possible that this is related to her elbow injury (although she is travelling later in the month). Whilst Russia/America relations aren’t as important as they once were, it is a little surprising that the Secretary of State isn’t accompanying the President on a visit of this magnitude.
Secondly, leaks suggest that Hillary Clinton was encouraging Obama to take a tougher line with Iran.
Neither of these stories are strong enough to suggest a split between the two, but there is increasing evidence that Hillary is being marginalised. From Jim Geraghty again:
We saw some foreign-policy disagreements during the primary, and now the secretary’s traditional role as the point person on all events, crises, and issues beyond our borders is being hemmed in by various special envoys and czars. Yesterday, the White House announced Vice President Biden would be overseeing progress in Iraq.
But the main reason for writing this post to get some discussion on Ed Morrissey’s final point:
Obama needs Hillary more than the other way around, especially as his economic policies start to tank. He needs a strong connection back to the DLC Democrats, which Hillary provides. He also needs a fall person on foreign affairs when things get bad. If there’s a split, it will damage Obama much more than Hillary, and it would set her up for a run at him in a 2012 primary, which may be her goal if Obama falls apart at the midterms.
Is Ed Morrissey right? Does Obama need Hillary more than the other way round? Will Hillary benefit from a split?
Personally I don’t think we’re anywhere near that point. Obama has shown that he can function fairly nicely with his liberal activist supporters and any Hillary resignation will most likely be portrayed as sour grapes on her part. Obama still has the political capital within the party to survive a Hillary departure.
However, I do think that changes if Hillary does run against Obama in a primary. A lot of Obama’s success in the 2008 election was to campaign on his promise of change. His absence of any real track record helped him portray himself as a political outsider, a new direction. But a primary against Hillary will lengthen the process of examining Obama’s record of allowing lobbyists access to the White House, of being a bit more pragmatic on Guantanamo, of reinforcing executive secrecy and his new policy of spying on private computer networks.
So get your hypothetical thinking caps on. Who comes out better in a Hillary v Barack fight?
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One Response to “Hillary Vs Barack Round Two”
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I don’t do well remembering statistics but am I right in saying the people voting for Hillary almost equalled Obama’s?
I feel that her supporters will be more loyal to her than Obama, because essentially she has a proven track record and Obama does not.
When the smiles and ‘change’ don’t work anymore a lot of Obama’s flock will follow Hillary’s sheepdog and at that point she will go for the kill.
As I said in a post a few days ago, she hates his guts and is only biding her time. So yes, I agree with the analysis Morrissey has given.