May
11
Barack Obama and the Middle East. Playing the Long Game.
Filed Under American Politics, Foreign Policy
Haaretz have details of a new poll which reports that Barack Obama’s popularity in the Middle East outstrips that of America.
Ipsos said its poll, conducted in March, involved 7,000 adults in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan. Of those surveyed, 33 percent had a favorable view of the United States, 43 percent had a negative view, 14 percent were neutral and 10 percent said they did not know, Ipsos said.
In contrast, Obama received favorable ratings averaging 48 percent in the region as a whole. Approval ran as high as 58 percent in Jordan and was lowest among Egyptians, who gave Obama favorable ratings of 35 percent, Ipsos said.
Haaretz suggests that Obama’s higher favourable ratings will in time make America itself more popular. That’s very possible, and certainly seems to be the strategy. His using of personal capital and soft power is certainly a contrast to the previous administration. However, it can only be a strategy for the long term. Changing perceptions does not happen overnight and any long term strategy runs the risk of being impeded by short term bumps in the road. The war in Afghanistan, the Israel-Iran cold war, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and up-coming election and the current conflagration in the Swat Valley will all push and pull on the soft power strategy.
Whether Obama’s relationship with the Middle East will be regarded as appeasement or engagement will be decided in the court of partisan politics but the poll is certainly indicative of the possibilities and is a tentative endorsement of his strategy so far.
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5 Responses to “Barack Obama and the Middle East. Playing the Long Game.”
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Going to be very interesting what Obama has to say in his big set piece address to the Muslim world in Cairo on June 4, followed hopefully by a major peace conference. Netanyahu has so far rejected any moves towards a two state solution and recently told the Israeli cabinet that there will be no deal with Syria on the Golan Heights. King Abdullah of Jordan following his meetings with Obama is proposing a 57-state solution”, whereby the Arab and entire Muslim world would recognise the Jewish state as part of the deal. That’s got to me hard for Israel to ignore, especially if early confidence building measures including such as the right for El Al, the Israeli airline, to fly over Arab air space and visas for Israeli tourists to Arab states in exchange for a freeze on settlement building can be delivered.
According to Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker Syria and Israel maybe much closer to a deal the public rhetoric suggests
“American and foreign government officials, intelligence officers, diplomats, and politicians said in interviews that renewed Israeli-Syrian negotiations over the Golan Heights are now highly likely, despite Gaza and the elections in Israel in February, which left the Likud Party leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, at the head of a coalition that includes both the far right and Labor. Those talks would depend largely on America’s willingness to act as the mediator, a role that could offer Barack Obama his first—and perhaps best—chance for engagement in the Middle East peace process.”
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/04/06/090406fa_fact_hersh
This Article really is well worth reading.
People are more likely to sit down and talk if at least one of them is popular (I won’t go as far as trusted yet) and can provide a focus for everyone else.
What do these people who give him approval want? I don’t think it’s endless war and killing.
Just suppose Obama is right…?
Well done Cabbie, this is great.
Ronnie
Ronnie
“Just suppose Obama is right…?”
You know what, that’s got me thinking. If you don’t mind I’ll pinch that as the premise of my next post.
And thankyou.
I don’t mind, knock yourself out. I’ll be waiting.
[...] a commentator who has a knack of seeing to the heart of the matter, asks in a comment in Barack Obama…Playing The Long Game: “Just suppose Obama is [...]